--- title: "Train 2025 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Train 2025 ($5.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.02% from 26 items with odds, observed 105.89% over 98 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2025 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Train 2025](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2025) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Train 2025 A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2025?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2025?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2025) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2025?window=all) Price · $5.49 Advertised RTP · 91.02% · EV $5.00 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.89% · 98 openings, sample method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 98 openings · below min 30 days · 98 openings · below min since tracking started · 98 openings · below min 81.5% 106.0% 130.5% **Small sample.** 98 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2025?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2025?window=7d) | 98 | 105.89% ±23.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2025) | 98 | 105.89% ±23.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2025?window=all) | 98 | 105.89% ±23.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $436 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 11,628 | $163 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-factory-new) | 1 in 9,174 | $141 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,634 | $131 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-field-tested) | 1 in 838 | $59.10 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 614 | $49.45 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 177 | $31.43 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $28.29 | 4.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $15.78 | 6.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× | | [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $14.19 | 6.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $11.98 | 7.2% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× | | [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $9.48 | 8.8% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.11× | | [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $8.51 | 9.4% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.30× | | [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $7.73 | 8.4% | 10 | 5.3 | 1.89× | | [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-minimal-wear) | 10.7% | $5.66 | 12.1% | 10 | 10.5 | 0.95× | | [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $4.38 | 8.8% | 8 | 9.8 | 0.82× | | [FAMAS \| 2A2F (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $2.77 | 4.5% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.14× | | [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $2.55 | 3.7% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.36 | 3.3% | 11 | 6.9 | 1.59× | | [XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1.86 | 2.2% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× | | [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.64 | 1.8% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× | | [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.59 | 1.7% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.30× | | [AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-steel-sentinel-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.94 | 0.8% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× | | [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.93 | 0.7% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× | | [FAMAS \| 2A2F (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.89 | 0.7% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× | | [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.70 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/train2025/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=train2025) [FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-factory-new) [Жук Пчела](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BA%20%D0%9F%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0) $5.49 $2.77 0.50x 2026-11-10 06:51 UTC [MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) [Жук Пчела](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BA%20%D0%9F%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0) $5.49 $4.38 0.80x 2026-11-10 06:51 UTC [MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-minimal-wear) [Жук Пчела](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BA%20%D0%9F%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0) $5.49 $28.29 5.15x 2026-11-10 06:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) [Soul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Soul) $5.49 $7.73 1.41x 2026-11-09 07:12 UTC [Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) [CODE寄生](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/CODE%E5%AF%84%E7%94%9F) $5.49 $7.73 1.41x 2026-11-08 15:15 UTC [Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $5.49 $5.66 1.03x 2026-11-07 17:37 UTC [MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-factory-new) [Just A User Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Just%20A%20User%20Name) $5.49 $49.45 9.01x 2026-11-07 02:14 UTC [UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-minimal-wear) [VATA\_S\_PUPKA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/VATA_S_PUPKA) $5.49 $0.70 0.13x 2026-11-06 20:30 UTC [Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $5.49 $1.60 0.29x 2026-11-05 20:04 UTC [MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $5.49 $1.64 0.30x 2026-11-05 20:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $5.49 | 91.02% | 26 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.49 | 94.00% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed red 0.0% restricted 0.0% rare 2.5% Legendary 5.2% pink 0.8% uncommon 13.3% #8847ff 19.3% Mythical 17.1% #4b69ff 14.1% Rare 14.8% violet 5.5% industrial 4.3% blue 3.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.02 on average: an expected loss of $8.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt