---
title: "Trophyhunt case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Trophyhunt ($2.28) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.85% from 42 items with odds, observed 94.24% over 261 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/trophyhunt
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Trophyhunt](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/trophyhunt)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Trophyhunt

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/trophyhunt?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/trophyhunt?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/trophyhunt) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/trophyhunt?window=all)

Price · $2.28

Advertised RTP · 93.85% · EV $2.14 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.24% · 261 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 87.30% ±38.20 130 openings

30 days · 94.24% ±26.90 261 openings

since tracking started · 94.24% ±26.90 261 openings

48.5% 87.3% 126.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/trophyhunt?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/trophyhunt?window=7d) | 130 | 87.30% ±38.2 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/trophyhunt) | 261 | 94.24% ±26.9 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/trophyhunt?window=all) | 261 | 94.24% ±26.9 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 261 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,729 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-wave-chaser-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,068 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,834 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,231 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,119 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $947 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $846 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $801 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $374 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife) | 1 in 250,000 | $330 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $271 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-field-tested) | 1 in 142,857 | $224 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $137 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $76.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 14,925 | $63.79 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 6,098 | $50.27 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,058 | $30.11 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 221 | $12.39 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $10.04 | 3.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $8.14 | 4.7% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.54× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $6.92 | 4.1% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $6.59 | 4.1% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $6.29 | 4.8% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.40× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $5.15 | 5.5% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $4.19 | 5.5% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-xoxo-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $4.04 | 5.4% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.77 | 7.1% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $3.57 | 6.2% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $2.98 | 6.6% | 18 | 12.4 | 1.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2.55 | 7.6% | 16 | 16.7 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.01 | 6.9% | 24 | 19.1 | 1.26× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.35 | 4.0% | 16 | 16.5 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $1.35 | 4.1% | 10 | 17.0 | 0.59× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $1.09 | 3.1% | 16 | 16.0 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.95 | 2.5% | 18 | 15.0 | 1.20× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.95 | 2.6% | 17 | 15.5 | 1.10× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.87 | 2.4% | 12 | 15.5 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.60 | 1.4% | 12 | 13.2 | 0.91× |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.51 | 1.2% | 10 | 13.3 | 0.75× |
| [M249 \| Aztec (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.44 | 1.0% | 17 | 12.1 | 1.41× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.31 | 0.6% | 12 | 10.9 | 1.10× |
| [Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-cracked-opal-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.22 | 0.4% | 5 | 9.6 | 0.52× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/trophyhunt/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=trophyhunt)

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) [Zaduyoshi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Zaduyoshi) $2.28 $0.95 0.42x 2026-11-09 17:13 UTC

[XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) [±Бąŧя±•](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C2%B1%D0%91%C4%85%C5%A7%D1%8F%C2%B1%E2%80%A2) $2.28 $1.35 0.59x 2026-11-09 14:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-factory-new) [BeαR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Be%CE%B1R) $2.28 $0.31 0.14x 2026-11-07 22:37 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) [BeαR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Be%CE%B1R) $2.28 $0.60 0.26x 2026-11-07 22:37 UTC

[XM1014 | Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) [BeαR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Be%CE%B1R) $2.28 $0.51 0.22x 2026-11-07 22:37 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) [oops\_xp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/oops_xp) $2.28 $0.60 0.26x 2026-11-06 22:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $2.28 $2.55 1.12x 2026-11-05 18:44 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-field-tested) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $2.28 $2.01 0.88x 2026-11-05 18:44 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $2.28 $2.98 1.31x 2026-11-05 18:44 UTC

[XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $2.28 $1.35 0.59x 2026-11-05 18:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.28 | 93.85% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.35 | 91.06% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.35 | 92.89% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.7% classified 0.5% legendary 0.0% covert 0.0% Covert 0.0% restricted 12.1% Immortal 0.0% rare 0.0% covert knife 0.0% red 0.0% Classified 3.6% pink 17.3% #d32ee6 5.0% uncommon 3.9% Legendary 2.8% Mythical 11.5% #8847ff 12.4% violet 10.9% blueLight 6.5% #4b69ff 5.7% Uncommon 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.85 on average: an expected loss of $6.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt