---
title: "Ultraviolet case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Ultraviolet ($329.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.73% from 29 items with odds, observed 111.57% over 5 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ultraviolet
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Ultraviolet](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ultraviolet)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Ultraviolet

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ultraviolet?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ultraviolet?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ultraviolet) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ultraviolet?window=all)

Price · $329.99

Advertised RTP · 93.73% · EV $309.31 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 111.57% · 5 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 5 openings · below min

30 days · 5 openings · below min

since tracking started · 5 openings · below min

56.0% 111.5% 167.0%

**Small sample.** 5 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ultraviolet?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ultraviolet?window=7d) | 5 | 111.57% ±54.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ultraviolet) | 5 | 111.57% ±54.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ultraviolet?window=all) | 5 | 111.57% ±54.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 1,653 | $2,222 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 1,230 | $2,152 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 547 | $1,642 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $798 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $662 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $603 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $586 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $518 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $507 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $490 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $481 | 5.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $475 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $444 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $428 | 6.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $372 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $353 | 9.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $295 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $251 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $230 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $178 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $144 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $130 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $97.77 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $89.61 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $87.89 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $71.38 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $57.68 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $53.11 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $48.75 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/ultraviolet/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $330 $507 1.54x 2026-11-06 19:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=ultraviolet)

[★ Falchion Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $330 $71.38 0.22x 2026-11-06 19:08 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $330 $507 1.54x 2026-11-06 19:08 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $330 $481 1.46x 2026-11-06 19:08 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $330 $428 1.30x 2026-11-06 19:08 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $330 $353 1.07x 2026-11-06 19:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $330 | 93.73% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $330 | 94.00% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 10.8% covert 49.9% covert knife 8.1% epic 8.8% gold 8.0% rare 7.7% sunny 3.5% Rare 3.2% best hit $507 (1.54x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.73 on average: an expected loss of $6.27 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt