---
title: "Ump case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ump ($0.66) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.97% from 36 items with odds, observed 113.60% over 129 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ump
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Ump](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ump)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Ump

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ump?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ump?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ump) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ump?window=all)

Price · $0.66

Advertised RTP · 92.97% · EV $0.61 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 113.60% · 129 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 57.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 15 openings · below min

7 days · 129 openings · below min

30 days · 129 openings · below min

since tracking started · 129 openings · below min

39.0% 96.8% 154.5%

**Small sample.** 129 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ump?window=24h) | 15 | 93.43% ±53.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ump?window=7d) | 129 | 113.60% ±40.1 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ump) | 129 | 113.60% ±40.1 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ump?window=all) | 129 | 113.60% ±40.1 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 129 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $101 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $66.13 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $45.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55,556 | $26.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 32,258 | $21.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 12,195 | $16.23 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 5,405 | $11.39 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,463 | $9.46 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,011 | $6.54 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 410 | $4.31 | 1.7% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 1 in 231 | $4.12 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $2.70 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $2.25 | 4.2% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Briefing (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $1.70 | 4.8% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $1.44 | 6.0% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.18 | 6.6% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.08 | 7.1% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.02 | 7.1% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.77 | 9.4% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.70 | 9.6% | 14 | 10.9 | 1.29× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.70 | 9.4% | 12 | 10.6 | 1.13× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.61 | 3.8% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.49 | 3.0% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| [UMP-45 \| Riot (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.48 | 3.0% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.41 | 2.5% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.33 | 2.0% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.63× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.30 | 1.9% | 11 | 4.9 | 2.24× |
| [UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-oscillator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.25 | 1.5% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.21 | 1.3% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.19 | 1.2% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.17 | 1.1% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.15 | 0.9% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.15 | 0.9% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.11 | 0.7% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.10 | 0.6% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| [UMP-45 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.09 | 0.6% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.43× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/ump/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=ump)

[UMP-45 | Motorized (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-factory-new) [SvyatoSlowed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SvyatoSlowed) $0.66 $0.30 0.45x 2026-11-11 08:06 UTC

[UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) [SvyatoSlowed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SvyatoSlowed) $0.66 $0.49 0.74x 2026-11-11 08:06 UTC

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-minimal-wear) [SvyatoSlowed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SvyatoSlowed) $0.66 $0.70 1.06x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) [SvyatoSlowed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SvyatoSlowed) $0.66 $0.70 1.06x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

[UMP-45 | Oscillator (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-oscillator-minimal-wear) [Артём Открывашка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D1%80%D1%82%D1%91%D0%BC%20%D0%9E%D1%82%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.66 $0.25 0.38x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-factory-new) [Артём Открывашка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D1%80%D1%82%D1%91%D0%BC%20%D0%9E%D1%82%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.66 $0.61 0.92x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-minimal-wear) [Артём Открывашка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D1%80%D1%82%D1%91%D0%BC%20%D0%9E%D1%82%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.66 $0.70 1.06x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) [Артём Открывашка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D1%80%D1%82%D1%91%D0%BC%20%D0%9E%D1%82%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.66 $0.70 1.06x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-minimal-wear) [Артём Открывашка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D1%80%D1%82%D1%91%D0%BC%20%D0%9E%D1%82%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.66 $0.70 1.06x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

[UMP-45 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) [Артём Открывашка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D1%80%D1%82%D1%91%D0%BC%20%D0%9E%D1%82%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.66 $0.11 0.17x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.66 | 92.97% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.66 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.8% mil spec 0.0% #4b69ff 11.3% milspec 3.8% industrial 11.4% uncommon 1.2% classified 0.0% pink 0.0% restricted 6.0% Industrial Grade 0.2% violet 4.4% consumer 0.8% Rare 5.5% Mythical 12.5% blue 31.2% Mil Spec 7.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.97 on average: an expected loss of $7.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt