---
title: "Upgrade case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Upgrade ($127.44) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 42 items with odds, observed 72.99% over 22 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/upgrade
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Upgrade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/upgrade)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Upgrade

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/upgrade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/upgrade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/upgrade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/upgrade?window=all)

Price · $127.44

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $119.79 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 72.99% · 22 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 21 openings · below min

30 days · 22 openings · below min

since tracking started · 22 openings · below min

-0.5% 137.0% 274.5%

**Small sample.** 22 openings and 5.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/upgrade?window=24h) | 1 | 22.99% ±251.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/upgrade?window=7d) | 21 | 70.08% ±53.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/upgrade) | 22 | 72.99% ±51.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/upgrade?window=all) | 22 | 72.99% ±51.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $35.7K | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $13.1K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 166,667 | $11.3K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $10.7K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $9,073 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 90,909 | $7,857 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 34,483 | $5,485 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 41,667 | $5,290 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41,667 | $5,286 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23,810 | $4,251 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Mjölnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,434 | $3,156 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,870 | $3,133 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,128 | $2,505 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,237 | $2,122 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,545 | $2,057 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,364 | $1,798 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,475 | $1,378 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 930 | $1,232 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 977 | $1,163 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $642 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $549 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $470 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 117 | $459 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $423 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $343 | 4.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $314 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $238 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $177 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $128 | 7.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $128 | 6.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $117 | 6.6% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.34× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $105 | 5.8% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-plum-quill-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $103 | 5.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $98.26 | 5.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.37× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $85.13 | 4.6% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.41× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-seigaiha-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $80.11 | 4.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.41× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $74.93 | 3.9% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $59.10 | 2.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $47.92 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $37.05 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.63× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $29.30 | 1.3% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.42× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $17.79 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/upgrade/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=upgrade)

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $127 $29.30 0.23x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

[AWP | LongDog (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-field-tested) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $127 $59.10 0.46x 2026-11-09 22:46 UTC

[AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $127 $98.26 0.77x 2026-11-09 22:46 UTC

[FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-factory-new) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $132 $85.13 0.64x 2026-11-05 15:59 UTC

[AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $132 $98.26 0.74x 2026-11-05 15:59 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-seigaiha-well-worn) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $132 $80.11 0.60x 2026-11-05 15:59 UTC

[★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $132 $117 0.88x 2026-11-05 15:59 UTC

[USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $132 $37.05 0.28x 2026-11-05 15:59 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) [Shrekker2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Shrekker2) $132 $29.30 0.22x 2026-11-04 21:55 UTC

[USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $132 $37.05 0.28x 2026-11-04 20:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $127 | 94.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $132 | 90.42% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $132 | 90.99% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 19.9% covert 15.4% legendary 1.0% classified 1.6% epic 0.9% sunny 0.0% restricted 7.5% #ffd700 0.1% gold 0.6% rare 29.6% Ancient 6.7% red 6.5% pink 5.3% uncommon 4.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt