---
title: "Ursus case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ursus ($104.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.49% from 30 items with odds, observed 118.37% over 2 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ursus
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Ursus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ursus)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Ursus

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ursus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ursus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ursus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ursus?window=all)

Price · $104.99

Advertised RTP · 93.49% · EV $98.15 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 118.37% · 2 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 2 openings · below min

30 days · 2 openings · below min

since tracking started · 2 openings · below min

40.0% 118.3% 196.5%

**Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ursus?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ursus?window=7d) | 2 | 118.37% ±77.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ursus) | 2 | 118.37% ±77.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/ursus?window=all) | 2 | 118.37% ±77.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 3,690 | $829 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,203 | $720 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 516 | $506 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 696 | $444 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 334 | $393 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 248 | $364 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 163 | $296 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 106 | $252 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $232 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $189 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $174 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $162 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $139 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $137 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $135 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $116 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $113 | 6.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $89.00 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $81.04 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $72.50 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $71.36 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $67.19 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $66.56 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $65.73 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $63.12 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $57.71 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $57.50 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $55.44 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $53.33 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $51.95 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/ursus/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=ursus)

[★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [Pivchik11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Pivchik11) $105 $113 1.08x 2026-11-08 00:28 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [extazi68](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/extazi68) $105 $135 1.29x 2026-11-07 19:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $105 | 93.49% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $105 | 94.00% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 30.7% Covert 5.3% covert knife 44.6% rare 9.6% gold 4.9% Immortal 4.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.49 on average: an expected loss of $6.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt