---
title: "Usps case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Usps ($1.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.95% from 36 items with odds, observed 97.87% over 1,327 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/usps
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Usps](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/usps)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Usps

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/usps?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/usps?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/usps) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/usps?window=all)

Price · $1.49

Advertised RTP · 92.95% · EV $1.38 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.87% · 1,327 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 109.53% ±9.71 463 openings

7 days · 97.87% ±5.74 1,327 openings

30 days · 97.87% ±5.74 1,327 openings

since tracking started · 97.87% ±5.74 1,327 openings

91.5% 105.8% 120.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/usps?window=24h) | 463 | 109.53% ±9.71 | +3.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/usps?window=7d) | 1,327 | 97.87% ±5.74 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/usps) | 1,327 | 97.87% ±5.74 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/usps?window=all) | 1,327 | 97.87% ±5.74 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,378 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $228 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $123 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $110 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $61.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27,778 | $49.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 1 in 12,987 | $35.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,444 | $26.20 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 2,137 | $19.10 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 758 | $12.90 | 1.2% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.65× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 1 in 414 | $10.22 | 1.8% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $8.28 | 3.2% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.24× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $5.78 | 3.6% | 15 | 11.8 | 1.27× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $4.69 | 4.3% | 17 | 17.4 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $4.16 | 5.1% | 27 | 23.6 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $3.39 | 5.7% | 32 | 32.3 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $2.68 | 6.4% | 45 | 45.8 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.33 | 7.4% | 88 | 60.2 | 1.46× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.29 | 7.1% | 62 | 59.4 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.94 | 8.6% | 84 | 84.9 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $1.76 | 8.5% | 90 | 92.1 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $1.67 | 10.2% | 122 | 117.0 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.33 | 3.8% | 52 | 54.7 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.10 | 3.2% | 44 | 54.7 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.95 | 2.7% | 56 | 54.7 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.82 | 2.3% | 63 | 54.7 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.71 | 2.0% | 44 | 54.7 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.64 | 1.8% | 50 | 54.7 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.59 | 1.7% | 65 | 54.7 | 1.19× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.49 | 1.4% | 54 | 54.7 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 1.3% | 59 | 54.7 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 1.2% | 44 | 54.7 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.31 | 0.9% | 55 | 54.7 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.30 | 0.9% | 49 | 54.7 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.29 | 0.8% | 50 | 54.7 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.21 | 0.6% | 50 | 54.7 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.20 | 0.6% | 47 | 54.7 | 0.86× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/usps/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=usps)

[USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $0.30 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $0.64 0.43x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $0.59 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:10 UTC

[USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $0.41 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $0.59 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $0.30 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $1.10 0.74x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $0.82 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $1.76 1.18x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $1.49 $1.76 1.18x 2026-11-11 12:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.49 | 92.95% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.49 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% restricted 4.0% classified 0.1% industrial 0.7% Mythical 9.6% mil spec 17.8% pink 0.9% #8847ff 2.3% violet 3.3% blue 16.3% Rare 22.6% Restricted 6.7% #4b69ff 7.9% uncommon 4.0% light blue 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.95 on average: an expected loss of $7.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt