---
title: "Vampire case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Vampire ($20.00) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.08% from 42 items with odds, observed 96.33% over 739 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vampire
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Vampire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vampire)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Vampire

A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vampire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vampire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vampire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vampire?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 95.08% · EV $19.02 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.33% · 739 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 94.06% ±8.81 466 openings

30 days · 96.33% ±7.06 739 openings

since tracking started · 96.33% ±7.06 739 openings

84.5% 94.3% 104.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vampire?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vampire?window=7d) | 466 | 94.06% ±8.81 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vampire) | 739 | 96.33% ±7.06 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vampire?window=all) | 739 | 96.33% ±7.06 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 739 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 76,923 | $913 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 27,027 | $614 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,757 | $382 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 2,247 | $228 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 1,984 | $187 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,022 | $168 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 797 | $155 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 567 | $131 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-factory-new) | 1 in 371 | $99.81 | 1.4% | 6 | 2.0 | 3.01× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 210 | $91.23 | 2.3% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 159 | $83.57 | 2.8% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 106 | $58.28 | 2.9% | 10 | 7.0 | 1.43× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $56.58 | 3.9% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $54.98 | 3.4% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $47.77 | 3.9% | 8 | 11.5 | 0.69× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $43.67 | 4.5% | 13 | 14.5 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $33.76 | 4.4% | 23 | 18.5 | 1.24× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $29.68 | 5.3% | 24 | 24.9 | 0.96× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $27.47 | 4.0% | 19 | 20.7 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $27.05 | 7.3% | 31 | 37.8 | 0.82× |
| [M249 \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $24.28 | 5.8% | 36 | 33.7 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $23.07 | 7.4% | 52 | 45.1 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $22.89 | 5.5% | 31 | 33.5 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $19.47 | 6.2% | 44 | 44.7 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Red FragCam (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $14.78 | 4.2% | 38 | 40.0 | 0.95× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $12.79 | 3.1% | 25 | 34.4 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $12.62 | 2.9% | 39 | 32.6 | 1.20× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $10.86 | 2.7% | 27 | 34.6 | 0.78× |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $9.86 | 2.1% | 39 | 30.5 | 1.28× |
| [FAMAS \| Night Borre (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $9.28 | 1.9% | 30 | 29.4 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $7.80 | 1.4% | 30 | 24.8 | 1.21× |
| [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $6.88 | 1.2% | 24 | 24.4 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $6.13 | 1.0% | 18 | 22.8 | 0.79× |
| [Nova \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $6.01 | 1.1% | 35 | 25.7 | 1.36× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $5.00 | 0.7% | 22 | 20.7 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $4.69 | 0.7% | 17 | 19.7 | 0.86× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $3.42 | 0.4% | 17 | 16.4 | 1.04× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $3.34 | 0.3% | 13 | 14.7 | 0.89× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $2.55 | 0.2% | 11 | 13.6 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $1.91 | 0.2% | 9 | 11.3 | 0.80× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $1.65 | 0.1% | 12 | 10.3 | 1.16× |
| [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $1.39 | 0.1% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.10× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/vampire/show`, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=vampire)

[FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $20.00 $9.86 0.49x 2026-11-08 20:03 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $20.00 $4.69 0.23x 2026-11-08 19:10 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $20.00 $3.42 0.17x 2026-11-08 19:10 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $20.00 $12.79 0.64x 2026-11-08 19:10 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $20.00 $23.07 1.15x 2026-11-08 19:10 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $20.00 $23.07 1.15x 2026-11-08 19:10 UTC

[FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $20.00 $9.86 0.49x 2026-11-08 19:10 UTC

[P250 | Red Rock (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $20.00 $19.47 0.97x 2026-11-08 19:09 UTC

[P250 | Red Rock (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $20.00 $19.47 0.97x 2026-11-08 19:09 UTC

[MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $20.00 $6.13 0.31x 2026-11-08 19:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $20.00 | 95.08% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 97.89% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.9% gold 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% classified 6.0% rare 0.3% covert knife 0.5% Mythical 3.3% restricted 6.8% industrial 27.8% Immortal 2.0% mil spec 11.6% consumer 8.5% violet 6.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.4% uncommon 3.1% Restricted 4.9% #4b69ff 2.2% Rare 3.8% blue 1.5% Industrial Grade 1.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.08 on average: an expected loss of $4.92 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt