---
title: "Vanguard case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Vanguard ($3.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.85% from 36 items with odds, observed 73.21% over 40 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vanguard
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Vanguard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vanguard)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Vanguard

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vanguard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vanguard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vanguard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vanguard?window=all)

Price · $3.49

Advertised RTP · 91.85% · EV $3.21 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.21% · 40 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 40 openings · below min

30 days · 40 openings · below min

since tracking started · 40 openings · below min

8.5% 132.3% 256.0%

**Small sample.** 40 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vanguard?window=24h) | 2 | 132.23% ±123.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vanguard?window=7d) | 40 | 73.21% ±20.1 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vanguard) | 40 | 73.21% ±20.1 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vanguard?window=all) | 40 | 73.21% ±20.1 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $493 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $384 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $217 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $172 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $119 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 38,462 | $85.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 37,037 | $79.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 5,291 | $46.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,393 | $27.83 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 790 | $24.04 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 558 | $20.86 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $12.01 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $11.93 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $9.59 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $8.26 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $7.82 | 6.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $7.30 | 5.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.73 | 10.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $5.45 | 7.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $4.78 | 12.2% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $3.14 | 4.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $2.96 | 4.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.56 | 3.5% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.30 | 3.1% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.08 | 2.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $2.01 | 2.7% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.96 | 2.7% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.72× |
| [G3SG1 \| Murky (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.82 | 2.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.43 | 1.9% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× |
| [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.41 | 1.9% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.72× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.24 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× |
| [G3SG1 \| Murky (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.76 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× |
| [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.66 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.64 | 0.9% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.72× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.61 | 0.8% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.29× |
| [G3SG1 \| Murky (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.59 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/vanguard/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=vanguard)

[UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-minimal-wear) [гром@33rus@](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BC%4033rus%40) $3.49 $1.41 0.40x 2026-11-10 15:18 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) [bus1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bus1k) $3.49 $7.82 2.24x 2026-11-10 14:52 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) [Володя Шаталов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%8F%20%D0%A8%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2) $3.49 $3.14 0.90x 2026-11-09 19:39 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) [naslednik71](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/naslednik71) $3.49 $4.78 1.37x 2026-11-09 15:33 UTC

[UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-minimal-wear) [Nait-to](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Nait-to) $3.49 $1.41 0.40x 2026-11-09 07:35 UTC

[M4A4 | Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) [Nait-to](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Nait-to) $3.49 $5.45 1.56x 2026-11-09 07:35 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [Александр Зорин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%20%D0%97%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BD) $3.49 $1.96 0.56x 2026-11-08 13:40 UTC

[G3SG1 | Murky (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-field-tested) [Esper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Esper) $3.49 $0.59 0.17x 2026-11-08 13:04 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-field-tested) [momilusa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/momilusa) $3.49 $0.61 0.17x 2026-11-06 20:01 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-field-tested) [Rayjke](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Rayjke) $3.49 $2.01 0.58x 2026-11-06 19:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $3.49 | 91.85% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.49 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% knifes 0.0% covert 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 3.9% restricted 21.6% Mil Spec Grade 2.3% #8847ff 7.1% Mythical 6.9% Mil Spec 5.7% mil spec 43.7% #4b69ff 4.4% milspec 4.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.85 on average: an expected loss of $8.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt