---
title: "Vertigo 2021 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Vertigo 2021 ($39.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.81% from 26 items with odds, observed 91.95% over 17 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vertigo2021
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Vertigo 2021](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vertigo2021)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Vertigo 2021

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vertigo2021?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vertigo2021?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vertigo2021) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vertigo2021?window=all)

Price · $39.99

Advertised RTP · 95.81% · EV $38.31 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.95% · 17 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 17 openings · below min

30 days · 17 openings · below min

since tracking started · 17 openings · below min

-0.5% 123.3% 247.0%

**Small sample.** 17 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vertigo2021?window=24h) | 1 | 12.53% ±233.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vertigo2021?window=7d) | 17 | 91.95% ±41.4 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vertigo2021) | 17 | 91.95% ±41.4 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vertigo2021?window=all) | 17 | 91.95% ±41.4 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 15,152 | $1,485 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,065 | $929 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 2,538 | $718 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 436 | $337 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 157 | $217 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $204 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-minimal-wear) | 1 in 121 | $198 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $196 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $190 | 5.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $72.59 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $57.44 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $41.86 | 8.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.57× |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $40.16 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $39.59 | 8.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $39.45 | 8.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $39.43 | 7.7% | 4 | 1.3 | 3.14× |
| [MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $31.76 | 4.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $30.82 | 4.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $30.11 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $16.27 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $14.81 | 2.0% | 4 | 0.9 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Red Tire (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-red-tire-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.79 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P90 \| Schematic (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.33 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Negev \| Infrastructure (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-infrastructure-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.98 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Nova \| Interlock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.62 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P90 \| Schematic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $5.01 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/vertigo2021/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=vertigo2021)

[P90 | Schematic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-minimal-wear) [Aleksey Warnov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksey%20Warnov) $39.99 $5.01 0.13x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

[Galil AR | CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $39.99 $41.86 1.05x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[P250 | Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $39.99 $41.89 1.05x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $39.99 $15.21 0.38x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $39.99 $30.97 0.77x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[P250 | Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $39.99 $41.89 1.05x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[P90 | Schematic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $39.99 $5.46 0.14x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $39.99 $160 4.01x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[P250 | Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $39.99 $41.89 1.05x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[P250 | Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $39.99 $41.89 1.05x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $39.99 | 95.81% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $39.99 | 94.00% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 5.1% covert 0.1% classified 2.5% Classified 1.5% #d32ee6 0.8% restricted 41.7% #8847ff 5.1% mil spec 17.9% Restricted 5.1% blue 10.1% industrial 5.1% milspec 5.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.81 on average: an expected loss of $4.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt