--- title: "Vicecity case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vicecity ($9.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 40 items with odds, observed 91.44% over 1,418 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vicecity rendered: 2026-11-11T15:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Vicecity](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vicecity) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Vicecity A case on CSGORUN (gta2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vicecity?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vicecity?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vicecity) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vicecity?window=all) Price · $9.99 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $9.39 from 40 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.44% · 1,418 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 47.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.74% ±7.59 418 openings 7 days · 91.44% ±4.12 1,418 openings 30 days · 91.44% ±4.12 1,418 openings since tracking started · 91.44% ±4.12 1,418 openings 84.5% 92.8% 101.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vicecity?window=24h) | 418 | 92.74% ±7.59 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vicecity?window=7d) | 1,418 | 91.44% ±4.12 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vicecity) | 1,418 | 91.44% ±4.12 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vicecity?window=all) | 1,418 | 91.44% ±4.12 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,482 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $546 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $442 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $340 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $271 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 28,571 | $207 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12,048 | $162 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,814 | $120 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,660 | $96.24 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,098 | $73.01 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 657 | $60.10 | 1.0% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 295 | $45.93 | 1.7% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 211 | $39.53 | 2.0% | 7 | 7.0 | 0.99× | | [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 162 | $34.41 | 2.3% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× | | [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $28.15 | 3.1% | 10 | 15.3 | 0.65× | | [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $23.12 | 3.7% | 18 | 22.4 | 0.80× | | [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $19.80 | 10.6% | 80 | 74.5 | 1.07× | | [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $15.79 | 4.9% | 40 | 43.2 | 0.93× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $13.48 | 6.8% | 67 | 70.3 | 0.95× | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $13.00 | 5.5% | 54 | 58.6 | 0.92× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $12.34 | 7.9% | 90 | 89.6 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $11.97 | 7.8% | 87 | 90.4 | 0.96× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $10.24 | 8.7% | 117 | 118.5 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $10.14 | 3.4% | 46 | 46.4 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $10.03 | 8.9% | 129 | 124.1 | 1.04× | | [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $9.21 | 3.1% | 46 | 46.4 | 0.99× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $6.89 | 2.3% | 50 | 46.4 | 1.08× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $6.69 | 2.2% | 42 | 46.4 | 0.91× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $5.26 | 1.8% | 65 | 46.4 | 1.40× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $5.01 | 1.7% | 37 | 46.4 | 0.80× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $4.88 | 1.6% | 34 | 46.4 | 0.73× | | [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $4.05 | 1.3% | 52 | 46.4 | 1.12× | | [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $3.02 | 1.0% | 41 | 46.4 | 0.88× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $2.79 | 0.9% | 48 | 46.4 | 1.04× | | [AUG \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $2.60 | 0.9% | 45 | 46.4 | 0.97× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $2.35 | 0.8% | 47 | 46.4 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $2.30 | 0.8% | 45 | 46.4 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.93 | 0.6% | 45 | 46.4 | 0.97× | | [AUG \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $1.71 | 0.6% | 48 | 46.4 | 1.04× | | [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $1.53 | 0.5% | 53 | 46.4 | 1.14× | | [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $1.10 | 0.1% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/vicecity/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=vicecity) [Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) [молодой папа](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%B0) $9.99 $13.48 1.35x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $9.99 $5.26 0.53x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $9.99 $6.69 0.67x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC [P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $9.99 $10.14 1.02x 2026-11-11 14:32 UTC [MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $9.99 $19.80 1.98x 2026-11-11 14:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $9.99 $3.02 0.30x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $9.99 $10.24 1.03x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC [M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $9.99 $4.05 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) [Babay9876](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Babay9876) $9.99 $5.26 0.53x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [Polughoul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Polughoul) $9.99 $10.24 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $9.99 | 94.00% | 40 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.0% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.5% covert 0.6% rare 3.1% gold 0.0% Mil Spec Grade 3.5% mil spec 10.7% classified 11.8% restricted 38.1% violet 6.1% pink 3.1% #4b69ff 9.9% Restricted 3.1% Mythical 6.3% Rare 3.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt