---
title: "Vitality ewc case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Vitality ewc ($11.32) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.98% from 42 items with odds, observed 96.28% over 326 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vitality-ewc
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Vitality ewc](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vitality-ewc)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Vitality ewc

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vitality-ewc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vitality-ewc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vitality-ewc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vitality-ewc?window=all)

Price · $11.32

Advertised RTP · 93.98% · EV $10.64 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.28% · 326 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98 openings · below min

7 days · 96.47% ±35.46 315 openings

30 days · 96.28% ±34.78 326 openings

since tracking started · 96.28% ±34.78 326 openings

34.0% 98.3% 162.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vitality-ewc?window=24h) | 98 | 98.48% ±63.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vitality-ewc?window=7d) | 315 | 96.47% ±35.5 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vitality-ewc) | 326 | 96.28% ±34.8 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/vitality-ewc?window=all) | 326 | 96.28% ±34.8 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 326 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $30.6K | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $8,093 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,548 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,745 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $4,251 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,133 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $2,208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,286 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $1,284 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $1,086 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $635 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34,483 | $420 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23,810 | $380 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,526 | $271 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-pillow-punchers-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,804 | $268 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,953 | $189 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 3,731 | $178 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,740 | $151 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-well-worn) | 1 in 1,229 | $123 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-well-worn) | 1 in 926 | $106 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-seigaiha-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $68.23 | 1.9% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife) | 1 in 152 | $50.97 | 3.1% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.87× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 138 | $46.61 | 3.2% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $40.42 | 3.4% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.37× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $34.32 | 4.1% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $32.30 | 4.2% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $25.78 | 4.6% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $22.37 | 6.3% | 8 | 9.7 | 0.82× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $20.78 | 5.1% | 10 | 8.5 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $17.79 | 5.8% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $17.11 | 5.8% | 17 | 11.8 | 1.44× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $14.15 | 7.7% | 18 | 18.8 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $11.37 | 7.4% | 18 | 22.5 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $11.07 | 7.4% | 36 | 23.2 | 1.55× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $10.18 | 6.9% | 24 | 23.5 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $8.97 | 6.1% | 31 | 23.5 | 1.32× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $6.70 | 4.6% | 16 | 23.8 | 0.67× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $4.06 | 2.8% | 21 | 24.3 | 0.87× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $2.55 | 1.8% | 20 | 24.6 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.24 | 1.6% | 24 | 24.8 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.95 | 0.7% | 19 | 25.4 | 0.75× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.59 | 0.4% | 27 | 26.0 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/vitality_ewc/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=vitality-ewc)

[P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $11.32 $2.55 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $11.32 $11.07 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $11.32 $0.59 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $11.32 $2.24 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $11.32 $4.06 0.36x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $11.32 $0.95 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $11.32 $14.15 1.25x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $11.32 $14.15 1.25x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $11.32 $0.59 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $11.32 $10.18 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $11.32 | 93.98% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $11.44 | 93.00% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.44 | 95.06% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.7% high 0.0% contraband 0.0% classified 18.1% extraordinary 0.8% #eb4b4b 0.0% sunny 0.1% rare 0.4% epic 0.0% red 4.1% Ancient 1.4% Legendary 8.8% pink 31.3% uncommon 11.1% restricted 7.6% #8847ff 15.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.98 on average: an expected loss of $6.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt