---
title: "Wacky case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Wacky ($2.16) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.71% from 49 items with odds, observed 86.63% over 318 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wacky
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Wacky](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wacky)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Wacky

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wacky?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wacky?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wacky) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wacky?window=all)

Price · $2.16

Advertised RTP · 93.71% · EV $2.02 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.63% · 318 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 19 openings · below min

7 days · 90.33% ±18.48 259 openings

30 days · 86.63% ±16.70 318 openings

since tracking started · 86.63% ±16.70 318 openings

-0.5% 59.8% 120.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wacky?window=24h) | 19 | 50.83% ±68.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wacky?window=7d) | 259 | 90.33% ±18.5 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wacky) | 318 | 86.63% ±16.7 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wacky?window=all) | 318 | 86.63% ±16.7 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 318 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,158 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $953 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $613 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $228 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 111,111 | $184 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $136 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 55,556 | $120 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55,556 | $116 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21,739 | $71.82 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,905 | $54.98 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,524 | $49.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-field-tested) | 1 in 8,696 | $46.05 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 6,061 | $44.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,325 | $23.99 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 1,435 | $23.94 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 576 | $16.19 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 288 | $13.08 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $12.66 | 2.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 263 | $12.56 | 2.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 234 | $10.95 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $10.91 | 3.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $9.78 | 3.4% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $7.82 | 3.6% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $6.37 | 3.7% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $4.78 | 4.9% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.52× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $4.77 | 4.7% | 13 | 6.3 | 2.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $4.36 | 5.7% | 5 | 8.5 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $3.32 | 6.2% | 12 | 12.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.73 | 7.0% | 12 | 16.5 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.61 | 7.2% | 24 | 17.7 | 1.36× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $2.15 | 7.6% | 28 | 22.8 | 1.23× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1.61 | 4.9% | 22 | 19.7 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1.44 | 3.9% | 20 | 17.5 | 1.14× |
| [Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1.24 | 3.2% | 12 | 16.8 | 0.72× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.97 | 2.2% | 15 | 14.3 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.97 | 2.3% | 17 | 15.6 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.90 | 2.1% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.89 | 1.9% | 10 | 13.6 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-insomnia-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.78 | 1.6% | 9 | 13.5 | 0.67× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.74 | 1.5% | 8 | 12.9 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $0.64 | 1.1% | 12 | 11.0 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $0.62 | 1.0% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.83× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.49 | 0.7% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.76× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.40 | 0.5% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.30× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $0.38 | 0.5% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Luxe Trim (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-luxe-trim-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.31 | 0.3% | 9 | 7.0 | 1.29× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $0.25 | 0.2% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.14× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $0.23 | 0.2% | 9 | 5.5 | 1.64× |
| [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/wacky/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=wacky)

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $2.16 $0.64 0.30x 2026-11-10 18:49 UTC

[Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $2.16 $1.24 0.57x 2026-11-10 18:49 UTC

[Tec-9 | Isaac (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-well-worn) [ant1kor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ant1kor) $2.16 $2.15 1.00x 2026-11-10 18:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) [ant1kor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ant1kor) $2.16 $0.64 0.30x 2026-11-10 18:14 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) [ant1kor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ant1kor) $2.16 $2.61 1.21x 2026-11-10 18:14 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) [Lynch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Lynch) $2.16 $0.97 0.45x 2026-11-10 17:38 UTC

[P2000 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) [Lynch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Lynch) $2.16 $0.97 0.45x 2026-11-10 17:38 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) [Lynch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Lynch) $2.16 $0.64 0.30x 2026-11-10 17:38 UTC

[SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-factory-new) [Volchonok052](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Volchonok052) $2.16 $0.90 0.42x 2026-11-10 17:32 UTC

[P2000 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) [Volchonok052](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Volchonok052) $2.16 $0.97 0.45x 2026-11-10 17:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.16 | 93.71% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.21 | 91.59% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.21 | 93.78% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% epic 0.0% classified 1.5% rare 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% violet 0.1% pink 0.2% restricted 22.3% Rare 14.0% Legendary 0.7% #8847ff 0.9% Mythical 13.4% #4b69ff 7.2% mil spec 12.5% blue 8.9% milspec 13.5% Mil Spec 2.9% Consumer Grade 1.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.71 on average: an expected loss of $6.29 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt