---
title: "Werewolf case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Werewolf ($40.00) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.26% from 42 items with odds, observed 95.21% over 157 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/werewolf
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Werewolf](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/werewolf)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Werewolf

A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/werewolf?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/werewolf?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/werewolf) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/werewolf?window=all)

Price · $40.00

Advertised RTP · 92.26% · EV $36.90 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.21% · 157 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 83 openings · below min

30 days · 95.21% ±15.63 157 openings

since tracking started · 95.21% ±15.63 157 openings

67.5% 89.5% 111.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/werewolf?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/werewolf?window=7d) | 83 | 89.15% ±21.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/werewolf) | 157 | 95.21% ±15.6 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/werewolf?window=all) | 157 | 95.21% ±15.6 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 157 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $5,029 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $1,989 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 23,810 | $1,158 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 12,195 | $896 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,519 | $776 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,105 | $459 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,006 | $344 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 587 | $283 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 336 | $234 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 206 | $187 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $174 | 3.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $150 | 3.6% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $115 | 3.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $92.10 | 3.5% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $89.00 | 3.8% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $80.75 | 4.2% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $67.17 | 4.4% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $57.73 | 4.5% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.34× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $55.44 | 5.0% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.33× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $49.97 | 5.4% | 11 | 6.3 | 1.75× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $42.84 | 6.5% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.13× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $42.10 | 5.7% | 6 | 7.9 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $35.27 | 3.6% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.36× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $33.76 | 5.2% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.90× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $32.03 | 4.6% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $30.57 | 4.8% | 14 | 9.0 | 1.55× |
| [P90 \| Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $27.38 | 3.8% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $25.78 | 3.2% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $23.08 | 2.7% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $22.60 | 2.6% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.04× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $19.16 | 2.1% | 1 | 6.2 | 0.16× |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $14.34 | 1.4% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.45× |
| [MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $14.04 | 1.3% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $12.79 | 1.1% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.24× |
| [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $9.41 | 0.7% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $7.07 | 0.5% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $5.78 | 0.3% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.44× |
| [UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $5.32 | 0.2% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [FAMAS \| Night Borre (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $5.28 | 0.3% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $4.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $3.40 | 0.1% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.87× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $2.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/werewolf/show`, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=werewolf)

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [uu.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/uu.) $40.00 $49.97 1.25x 2026-11-08 20:45 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Апельсин オレンジ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BF%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BD%20%E3%82%AA%E3%83%AC%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B8) $40.00 $55.44 1.39x 2026-11-08 19:46 UTC

[P90 | Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $40.00 $27.38 0.68x 2026-11-08 18:37 UTC

[Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $40.00 $25.78 0.64x 2026-11-08 18:36 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $40.00 $49.97 1.25x 2026-11-08 18:36 UTC

[★ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $40.00 $42.84 1.07x 2026-11-08 18:36 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $40.00 $35.27 0.88x 2026-11-08 18:36 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $40.00 $42.10 1.05x 2026-11-08 18:36 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $40.00 $42.10 1.05x 2026-11-08 18:36 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $40.00 $80.75 2.02x 2026-11-08 18:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $40.00 | 92.26% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $40.00 | 95.33% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% covert 22.1% epic 0.0% extraordinary 0.2% rare 0.5% restricted 18.9% covert knife 3.3% red 2.4% classified 14.5% Rare 5.0% industrial 12.8% mil spec 6.5% blue 4.3% pink 4.3% #87c7ff 1.7% #777777 2.0% #8847ff 1.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.26 on average: an expected loss of $7.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt