---
title: "Wicker case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Wicker ($2.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 40 items with odds, observed 84.26% over 8,334 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wicker
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Wicker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wicker)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Wicker

A case on CSGORUN (hype2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wicker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wicker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wicker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wicker?window=all)

Price · $2.99

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $2.81 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.26% · 8,334 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 56.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.55% ±5.05 1,122 openings

7 days · 84.26% ±1.62 8,334 openings

30 days · 84.26% ±1.62 8,334 openings

since tracking started · 84.26% ±1.62 8,334 openings

81.5% 92.8% 104.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 82.10% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.65% – 85.88%, 8,334 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wicker?window=24h) | 1,122 | 98.55% ±5.05 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wicker?window=7d) | 8,334 | 84.26% ±1.62 | +2.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wicker) | 8,334 | 84.26% ±1.62 | +2.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wicker?window=all) | 8,334 | 84.26% ±1.62 | +2.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,863 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,038 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $628 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $307 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-flowers-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $136 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $84.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $82.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 45,455 | $52.70 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 47,619 | $52.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-factory-new) | 1 in 8,000 | $32.41 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-factory-new) | 1 in 3,378 | $25.40 | 0.3% | 9 | 2.9 | 3.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 1,776 | $22.09 | 0.4% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.72× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 491 | $15.84 | 1.1% | 20 | 20.1 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 309 | $13.01 | 1.5% | 38 | 31.9 | 1.19× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $9.83 | 2.0% | 53 | 55.1 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $8.89 | 2.9% | 88 | 90.2 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $7.22 | 4.0% | 140 | 153.2 | 0.91× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $6.14 | 7.1% | 327 | 318.3 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $5.41 | 5.7% | 279 | 291.9 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4.83 | 6.9% | 362 | 394.3 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $4.69 | 6.0% | 311 | 356.4 | 0.87× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $4.11 | 8.1% | 570 | 545.4 | 1.05× |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.96 | 9.7% | 696 | 680.1 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.96 | 9.5% | 658 | 667.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $3.78 | 8.7% | 591 | 634.4 | 0.93× |
| [XM1014 \| Watchdog (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $2.65 | 3.4% | 312 | 357.9 | 0.87× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $2.44 | 3.2% | 321 | 357.9 | 0.90× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.31 | 3.0% | 376 | 357.9 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.90 | 2.5% | 300 | 357.9 | 0.84× |
| [XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.89 | 2.4% | 305 | 357.9 | 0.85× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.53 | 2.0% | 322 | 357.9 | 0.90× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.30 | 1.7% | 318 | 357.9 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.95 | 1.2% | 344 | 357.9 | 0.96× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Withered Vine (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-withered-vine-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.91 | 1.2% | 352 | 357.9 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Old Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.89 | 1.1% | 357 | 357.9 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Drift Wood (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-drift-wood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.82 | 1.1% | 367 | 357.9 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.59 | 0.8% | 328 | 357.9 | 0.92× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.58 | 0.7% | 364 | 357.9 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.57 | 0.7% | 348 | 357.9 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $0.45 | 0.4% | 262 | 245.5 | 1.07× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.38 | 0.5% | 347 | 357.9 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/wicker/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=wicker)

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) [123](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/123) $2.99 $3.96 1.32x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Drift Wood (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-drift-wood-minimal-wear) [n1kolaew](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/n1kolaew) $2.99 $0.82 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-withered-vine-field-tested) [Бобр жора](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%80%20%D0%B6%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0) $2.99 $0.91 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [Бобр жора](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%80%20%D0%B6%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0) $2.99 $3.78 1.26x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) [Бобр жора](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%80%20%D0%B6%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0) $2.99 $0.45 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC

[P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) [Владимир Путин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD) $2.99 $1.30 0.43x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) [Владимир Путин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD) $2.99 $2.31 0.77x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) [Владимир Путин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD) $2.99 $3.96 1.32x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) [Владимир Путин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD) $2.99 $2.44 0.82x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) [Андрей Вернер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%92%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80) $2.99 $1.30 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.99 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% restricted 17.1% epic 0.0% mil spec 14.4% classified 0.0% milspec 3.6% other 0.0% violet 9.8% Mythical 3.9% blue 4.5% #4b69ff 5.5% pink 6.8% Legendary 6.4% Mil Spec Grade 3.6% #8847ff 3.6% Industrial Grade 3.6% Uncommon 7.3% Rare 9.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt