---
title: "Wildfire case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Wildfire ($4.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.77% from 38 items with odds, observed 91.97% over 80 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wildfire
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Wildfire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wildfire)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Wildfire

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wildfire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wildfire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wildfire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wildfire?window=all)

Price · $4.99

Advertised RTP · 92.77% · EV $4.63 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.97% · 80 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 10 openings · below min

7 days · 80 openings · below min

30 days · 80 openings · below min

since tracking started · 80 openings · below min

16.5% 84.5% 152.5%

**Small sample.** 80 openings and 15.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wildfire?window=24h) | 10 | 84.43% ±67.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wildfire?window=7d) | 80 | 91.97% ±23.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wildfire) | 80 | 91.97% ±23.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/wildfire?window=all) | 80 | 91.97% ±23.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 157 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $317 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $195 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43,478 | $172 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 22,727 | $141 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,813 | $94.82 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,497 | $68.79 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 1,942 | $54.75 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,404 | $51.98 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 321 | $29.68 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 428 | $29.39 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 255 | $27.85 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 198 | $25.78 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $17.79 | 3.7% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $17.78 | 4.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $16.37 | 3.9% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $10.98 | 5.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $10.73 | 4.7% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.56× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $10.48 | 5.5% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $10.22 | 5.4% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $6.38 | 8.0% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.09× |
| [Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $6.04 | 10.8% | 17 | 13.0 | 1.30× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.58 | 7.2% | 18 | 9.3 | 1.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $4.68 | 4.2% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $4.55 | 4.1% | 2 | 6.5 | 0.31× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $3.90 | 3.5% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $2.61 | 2.3% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× |
| [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $2.54 | 2.3% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.37 | 2.1% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.05 | 1.8% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.94 | 1.7% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.77 | 1.6% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.61 | 1.4% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
| [Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.31 | 1.2% | 9 | 6.5 | 1.39× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.20 | 1.1% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.15 | 1.0% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.99 | 0.9% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.74 | 0.7% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
| [Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.72 | 0.6% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/wildfire/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=wildfire)

[Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $4.99 $0.72 0.14x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-minimal-wear) [nyako](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/nyako) $4.99 $1.61 0.32x 2026-11-10 19:28 UTC

[USP-S | Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-minimal-wear) [nyako](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/nyako) $4.99 $1.94 0.39x 2026-11-10 19:28 UTC

[MP7 | Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) [nyako](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/nyako) $4.99 $5.58 1.12x 2026-11-10 19:28 UTC

[SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) [nyako](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/nyako) $4.99 $2.54 0.51x 2026-11-10 19:28 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) [GiganticNax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GiganticNax) $4.99 $2.61 0.52x 2026-11-10 19:23 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) [GiganticNax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GiganticNax) $4.99 $1.77 0.35x 2026-11-10 19:23 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) [GiganticNax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GiganticNax) $4.99 $3.90 0.78x 2026-11-10 19:23 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-factory-new) [GiganticNax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GiganticNax) $4.99 $10.73 2.15x 2026-11-10 19:23 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-factory-new) [GiganticNax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GiganticNax) $4.99 $10.73 2.15x 2026-11-10 19:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $4.99 | 92.77% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.99 | 94.00% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 4.1% covert 0.3% covert knife 0.0% classified 7.3% Immortal 0.1% restricted 22.3% Classified 0.4% Legendary 1.0% mil spec 23.1% Mil Spec Grade 8.3% violet 8.3% #4b69ff 20.7% Rare 4.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.77 on average: an expected loss of $7.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt