---
title: "Winteroffensive case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Winteroffensive ($1.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.97% from 32 items with odds, observed 84.82% over 345 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/winteroffensive
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Winteroffensive](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/winteroffensive)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Winteroffensive

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/winteroffensive?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/winteroffensive?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/winteroffensive) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/winteroffensive?window=all)

Price · $1.49

Advertised RTP · 90.97% · EV $1.36 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.82% · 345 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86 openings · below min

7 days · 84.82% ±11.06 345 openings

30 days · 84.82% ±11.06 345 openings

since tracking started · 84.82% ±11.06 345 openings

62.5% 85.3% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/winteroffensive?window=24h) | 86 | 85.38% ±22.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/winteroffensive?window=7d) | 345 | 84.82% ±11.1 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/winteroffensive) | 345 | 84.82% ±11.1 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/winteroffensive?window=all) | 345 | 84.82% ±11.1 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 477 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $179 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $158 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $110 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $82.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40,000 | $51.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 15,152 | $36.03 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 7,634 | $28.47 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $24.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 5,435 | $22.94 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,740 | $17.32 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 2,591 | $16.04 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 515 | $9.09 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 362 | $7.96 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 317 | $7.44 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-factory-new) | 1 in 269 | $6.61 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 214 | $6.29 | 2.2% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.35× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 236 | $6.19 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 226 | $6.14 | 2.0% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 1 in 225 | $5.96 | 2.0% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $5.35 | 2.3% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-factory-new) | 1 in 163 | $5.13 | 2.3% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $4.75 | 2.0% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.50× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $4.51 | 2.5% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $4.01 | 2.5% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $2.70 | 3.4% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $2.66 | 3.7% | 11 | 8.9 | 1.24× |
| [M249 \| Magma (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $2.14 | 3.4% | 12 | 10.1 | 1.18× |
| [Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $1.98 | 2.8% | 13 | 9.2 | 1.41× |
| [M249 \| Magma (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.50 | 4.2% | 17 | 18.1 | 0.94× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.39 | 4.3% | 12 | 20.1 | 0.60× |
| [M249 \| Magma (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.17 | 7.3% | 46 | 40.2 | 1.15× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-field-tested) | 69.5% | $0.83 | 42.6% | 330 | 331.5 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/winteroffensive/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=winteroffensive)

[PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-field-tested) [боба-фетт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0-%D1%84%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%82) $1.49 $0.83 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-minimal-wear) [боба-фетт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0-%D1%84%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%82) $1.49 $2.70 1.81x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-field-tested) [боба-фетт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0-%D1%84%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%82) $1.49 $0.83 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-field-tested) [боба-фетт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0-%D1%84%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%82) $1.49 $0.83 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-field-tested) [боба-фетт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0-%D1%84%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%82) $1.49 $0.83 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-field-tested) [боба-фетт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0-%D1%84%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%82) $1.49 $2.66 1.79x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-field-tested) [боба-фетт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0-%D1%84%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%82) $1.49 $0.83 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-field-tested) [боба-фетт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0-%D1%84%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%82) $1.49 $0.83 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[M249 | Magma (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-factory-new) [боба-фетт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0-%D1%84%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%82) $1.49 $2.14 1.44x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-field-tested) [боба-фетт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0-%D1%84%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%82) $1.49 $0.83 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.49 | 90.97% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.49 | 94.00% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 69.5% covert 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% classified 0.1% restricted 4.2% #d32ee6 0.0% Mythical 0.2% Mil Spec Grade 0.5% mil spec 19.8% Rare 1.9% blue 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.97 on average: an expected loss of $9.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt