---
title: "Xm 1014 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Xm 1014 ($0.69) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.82% from 36 items with odds, observed 105.56% over 79 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/xm1014
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Xm 1014](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/xm1014)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Xm 1014

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/xm1014?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/xm1014?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/xm1014) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/xm1014?window=all)

Price · $0.69

Advertised RTP · 92.82% · EV $0.64 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 105.56% · 79 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 22 openings · below min

7 days · 79 openings · below min

30 days · 79 openings · below min

since tracking started · 79 openings · below min

56.0% 100.0% 144.0%

**Small sample.** 79 openings and 20.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/xm1014?window=24h) | 22 | 100.00% ±43.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/xm1014?window=7d) | 79 | 105.56% ±22.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/xm1014) | 79 | 105.56% ±22.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/xm1014?window=all) | 79 | 105.56% ±22.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $105 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $72.27 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Red Leather (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $44.84 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $33.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 28,571 | $21.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-factory-new) | 1 in 13,699 | $16.30 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) | 1 in 5,348 | $12.26 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,451 | $8.92 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 792 | $6.46 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 485 | $5.06 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 215 | $3.69 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $2.79 | 3.8% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.79× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $2.19 | 4.6% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
| [XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $1.86 | 5.1% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.27× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $1.43 | 5.4% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.25 | 6.5% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.10 | 7.4% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.92× |
| [XM1014 \| Charter (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-charter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.94 | 8.0% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Tire (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.90 | 7.7% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.75 | 9.2% | 12 | 9.8 | 1.23× |
| [XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.74 | 9.2% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.60 | 3.6% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.51 | 3.1% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.44× |
| [XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.48 | 2.9% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.62× |
| [XM1014 \| Scumbria (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.39 | 2.4% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.24× |
| [XM1014 \| Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.36 | 2.2% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.62× |
| [XM1014 \| Copperflage (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.30 | 1.8% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.28 | 1.7% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.28 | 1.7% | 1 | 4.9 | 0.21× |
| [XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.21 | 1.3% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.62× |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.19 | 1.2% | 9 | 4.9 | 1.85× |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.18 | 1.1% | 9 | 4.9 | 1.85× |
| [XM1014 \| Copperflage (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.15 | 0.9% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.44× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.14 | 0.8% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| XoooM (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.13 | 0.8% | 11 | 4.9 | 2.27× |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.09 | 0.5% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/xm1014/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=xm1014)

[XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $0.69 $2.19 3.17x 2026-11-11 11:57 UTC

[XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [Mr.Morkovkin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Morkovkin) $0.69 $0.18 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:34 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) [Mr.Morkovkin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Morkovkin) $0.69 $0.60 0.87x 2026-11-11 10:34 UTC

[XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-factory-new) [Martin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Martin) $0.69 $0.13 0.19x 2026-11-11 06:33 UTC

[XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-factory-new) [Martin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Martin) $0.69 $0.13 0.19x 2026-11-11 06:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [Martin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Martin) $0.69 $0.18 0.26x 2026-11-11 06:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Charter (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-charter-minimal-wear) [Martin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Martin) $0.69 $0.94 1.36x 2026-11-11 06:26 UTC

[XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-factory-new) [Bezraznici](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Bezraznici) $0.69 $0.75 1.09x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC

[XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [Bezraznici](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Bezraznici) $0.69 $0.18 0.26x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC

[XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) [ロシア、プーチン、勝](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E3%83%AD%E3%82%B7%E3%82%A2%E3%80%81%E3%83%97%E3%83%BC%E3%83%81%E3%83%B3%E3%80%81%E5%8B%9D) $0.69 $0.19 0.28x 2026-11-11 05:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.69 | 92.82% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.69 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.9% mil spec 11.7% other 0.0% Restricted 0.0% classified 0.2% restricted 6.7% Mythical 1.8% #4b69ff 13.4% violet 8.2% Common 5.5% gray 5.5% Rare 11.7% blue 11.9% milspec 7.8% #87c7ff 3.9% industrial 3.9% Uncommon 3.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.82 on average: an expected loss of $7.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt