--- title: "Yellow case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Yellow ($10.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 40 items with odds, observed 97.32% over 173 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yellow rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Yellow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yellow) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Yellow A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yellow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yellow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yellow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yellow?window=all) Price · $10.99 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $10.33 from 40 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.32% · 173 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 56.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 11 openings · below min 7 days · 97.32% ±12.89 173 openings 30 days · 97.32% ±12.89 173 openings since tracking started · 97.32% ±12.89 173 openings 71.0% 122.8% 174.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yellow?window=24h) | 11 | 122.77% ±51.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yellow?window=7d) | 173 | 97.32% ±12.9 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yellow) | 173 | 97.32% ±12.9 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yellow?window=all) | 173 | 97.32% ±12.9 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 236 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $637 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $464 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $368 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $281 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-factory-new) | 1 in 21,739 | $218 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-factory-new) | 1 in 9,901 | $176 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 4,608 | $137 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,137 | $104 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,163 | $84.13 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 571 | $66.48 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 278 | $51.26 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $45.48 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.69× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $36.46 | 2.7% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.65× | | [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $31.56 | 3.2% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $26.54 | 4.0% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× | | [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $22.44 | 12.4% | 9 | 13.4 | 0.67× | | [MAC-10 \| Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $19.34 | 5.8% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $18.15 | 8.7% | 7 | 11.7 | 0.60× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $13.48 | 8.0% | 19 | 14.5 | 1.31× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $13.39 | 9.1% | 12 | 16.5 | 0.73× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $12.74 | 5.2% | 5 | 10.0 | 0.50× | | [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $11.55 | 8.8% | 17 | 18.6 | 0.92× | | [Tec-9 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $9.03 | 2.7% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.26× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $8.33 | 2.4% | 3 | 7.2 | 0.42× | | [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $7.54 | 2.2% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× | | [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $7.44 | 3.5% | 13 | 11.4 | 1.14× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.81 | 2.0% | 13 | 7.2 | 1.82× | | [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.73 | 1.7% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.70× | | [Nova \| Interlock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.62 | 1.6% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.40× | | [Nova \| Interlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4.43 | 1.3% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.12× | | [Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.71 | 1.1% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× | | [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3.69 | 1.1% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.84× | | [Galil AR \| Galigator (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3.50 | 1.0% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.84× | | [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3.02 | 0.9% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.84× | | [Galil AR \| Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.69 | 0.8% | 1 | 7.2 | 0.14× | | [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.39 | 0.7% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.26× | | [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.21 | 0.6% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Exchanger (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.93 | 0.6% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× | | [MP7 \| Akoben (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.65 | 0.5% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.12× | | [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.41 | 0.4% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.26× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/yellow/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=yellow) [CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $10.99 $6.81 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $10.99 $6.81 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $10.99 $6.81 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $10.99 $19.34 1.76x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Nova | Interlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-minimal-wear) [Владимир Павлицкий](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9) $10.99 $4.43 0.40x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC [M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [батраканыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%87) $10.99 $7.44 0.68x 2026-11-10 14:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [батраканыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%87) $10.99 $7.44 0.68x 2026-11-10 14:01 UTC [P250 | Exchanger (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-factory-new) [батраканыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%87) $10.99 $1.93 0.18x 2026-11-10 14:01 UTC [G3SG1 | Stinger (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-minimal-wear) [батраканыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%87) $10.99 $7.54 0.69x 2026-11-10 14:01 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [батраканыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%87) $10.99 $66.48 6.05x 2026-11-10 14:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $10.99 | 94.00% | 40 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% covert knife 0.0% Ancient 0.0% restricted 11.9% sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 9.9% classified 25.3% violet 9.2% #8847ff 13.1% #d32ee6 4.2% Mythical 10.9% Mil Spec 3.0% rare 3.0% #4b69ff 6.1% blue 3.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt