---
title: "Yourun case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Yourun ($18.57) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.95% from 49 items with odds, observed 95.19% over 248 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yourun
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Yourun](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yourun)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Yourun

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yourun?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yourun?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yourun) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yourun?window=all)

Price · $18.57

Advertised RTP · 93.95% · EV $17.45 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.19% · 248 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 96.19% ±20.68 244 openings

30 days · 95.19% ±20.51 248 openings

since tracking started · 95.19% ±20.51 248 openings

74.0% 95.8% 117.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yourun?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yourun?window=7d) | 244 | 96.19% ±20.7 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yourun) | 248 | 95.19% ±20.5 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/yourun?window=all) | 248 | 95.19% ±20.5 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 248 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $11.3K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $8,522 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $6,856 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,029 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,597 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 250,000 | $1,949 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $1,382 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $1,378 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $1,284 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76,923 | $1,054 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71,429 | $952 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) | 1 in 55,556 | $849 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 52,632 | $848 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 21,739 | $629 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17,857 | $582 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 9,901 | $431 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $423 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,952 | $357 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 3,636 | $298 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,674 | $268 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) | 1 in 2,488 | $264 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet) | 1 in 1,647 | $225 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $210 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,259 | $202 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 754 | $160 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 519 | $144 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 496 | $144 | 1.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 439 | $137 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 441 | $136 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $58.24 | 4.1% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $53.38 | 4.4% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $49.22 | 4.4% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.30× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $43.71 | 4.9% | 10 | 4.9 | 2.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $34.68 | 5.5% | 11 | 6.8 | 1.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $32.27 | 5.2% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $30.27 | 6.7% | 5 | 9.6 | 0.52× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $22.89 | 7.1% | 6 | 13.4 | 0.45× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $22.55 | 8.9% | 19 | 17.0 | 1.12× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $21.13 | 8.1% | 14 | 16.6 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $14.29 | 6.0% | 14 | 18.3 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $10.32 | 4.2% | 19 | 17.6 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $9.61 | 3.8% | 23 | 17.3 | 1.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $8.95 | 3.5% | 16 | 16.8 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Navy Murano (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $8.04 | 3.2% | 16 | 17.3 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.75 | 1.6% | 13 | 15.0 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $4.28 | 1.5% | 15 | 15.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.55 | 1.2% | 12 | 14.3 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $3.17 | 1.0% | 20 | 14.0 | 1.43× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.61 | 0.8% | 15 | 13.4 | 1.12× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/yourun/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=yourun)

[Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $18.57 $21.13 1.14x 2026-11-09 20:51 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $18.57 $2.61 0.14x 2026-11-09 20:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $18.57 $4.28 0.23x 2026-11-09 20:50 UTC

[AUG | Navy Murano (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $18.57 $8.04 0.43x 2026-11-09 20:50 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $18.57 $43.71 2.35x 2026-11-09 20:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $18.57 $10.32 0.56x 2026-11-09 20:50 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $18.57 $43.71 2.35x 2026-11-09 20:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $18.57 $22.55 1.21x 2026-11-09 20:48 UTC

[AWP | Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $18.57 $3.17 0.17x 2026-11-09 20:48 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $18.57 $30.27 1.63x 2026-11-09 20:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $18.57 | 93.95% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $19.11 | 91.30% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.11 | 93.34% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.0% contraband 0.0% classified 20.7% restricted 2.8% sunny 0.0% covert knife 0.0% gold 0.1% epic 0.3% rare 10.1% Immortal 0.2% #eb4b4b 1.2% red 4.2% extraordinary 2.0% industrial 5.4% Legendary 13.4% #8847ff 7.0% pink 12.4% #777777 7.0% blue 5.8% Mythical 5.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.95 on average: an expected loss of $6.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt