---
title: "Zaprcase case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Zaprcase ($2.14) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.70% from 44 items with odds, observed 105.87% over 159 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zaprcase
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Zaprcase](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zaprcase)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Zaprcase

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zaprcase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zaprcase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zaprcase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zaprcase?window=all)

Price · $2.14

Advertised RTP · 93.70% · EV $2.01 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 105.87% · 159 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 115.02% ±28.77 108 openings

30 days · 105.87% ±23.84 159 openings

since tracking started · 105.87% ±23.84 159 openings

-0.5% 201.0% 402.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zaprcase?window=24h) | 1 | 105.14% ±296.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zaprcase?window=7d) | 108 | 115.02% ±28.8 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zaprcase) | 159 | 105.87% ±23.8 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zaprcase?window=all) | 159 | 105.87% ±23.8 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 159 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,378 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $614 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $431 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $409 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $397 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $233 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $204 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $128 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58,824 | $124 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $119 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $113 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $111 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-well-worn) | 1 in 55,556 | $92.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 31,250 | $77.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 22,222 | $67.69 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 17,544 | $64.34 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15,625 | $61.19 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 22,727 | $61.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 9,259 | $47.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 12,346 | $47.02 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 2,882 | $34.90 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-field-tested) | 1 in 3,135 | $33.43 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 2,433 | $28.59 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 1,770 | $28.57 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-digital-architect-field-tested) | 1 in 532 | $22.83 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 308 | $13.88 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $6.44 | 4.3% | 5 | 2.1 | 2.34× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $5.15 | 5.3% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $4.88 | 6.0% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.27× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $4.69 | 5.8% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $3.57 | 6.5% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.61 | 7.6% | 10 | 9.3 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $2.44 | 8.3% | 11 | 10.8 | 1.02× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $2.25 | 7.6% | 11 | 10.8 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.01 | 8.1% | 15 | 12.8 | 1.17× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.77 | 6.9% | 12 | 12.5 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.47 | 5.4% | 9 | 11.8 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.24 | 4.4% | 15 | 11.4 | 1.31× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $1.06 | 3.6% | 10 | 10.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $1.02 | 3.5% | 12 | 10.9 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.90 | 3.0% | 15 | 10.6 | 1.42× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.64 | 1.9% | 7 | 9.5 | 0.74× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.59 | 1.7% | 5 | 9.2 | 0.54× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.37 | 1.0% | 5 | 8.3 | 0.60× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/zaprcase/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=zaprcase)

[Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-well-worn) [Mr.MuckDuck.Run](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.MuckDuck.Run) $2.14 $2.25 1.05x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) [TAUJORA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/TAUJORA) $2.14 $6.44 3.01x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) [snikers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/snikers) $2.14 $0.64 0.30x 2026-11-08 02:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) [snikers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/snikers) $2.14 $0.64 0.30x 2026-11-08 02:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) [SvyatoSlowed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SvyatoSlowed) $2.14 $0.59 0.28x 2026-11-06 16:04 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) [6yxou-NeGaT1Ve-](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/6yxou-NeGaT1Ve-) $2.14 $2.44 1.14x 2026-11-06 12:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [✪ LECTUL0](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9C%AA%20LECTUL0) $2.14 $1.24 0.58x 2026-11-06 07:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) [✪ LECTUL0](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9C%AA%20LECTUL0) $2.14 $1.02 0.48x 2026-11-06 07:06 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) [✪ LECTUL0](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9C%AA%20LECTUL0) $2.14 $2.44 1.14x 2026-11-06 07:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) [✪ LECTUL0](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9C%AA%20LECTUL0) $2.14 $0.90 0.42x 2026-11-06 07:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.14 | 93.70% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.12 | 94.59% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.12 | 94.75% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 33.3% rare 0.0% Restricted 0.0% Mythical 24.5% #8847ff 14.5% uncommon 15.3% violet 12.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.70 on average: an expected loss of $6.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt