---
title: "Zasecrcase case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Zasecrcase ($4.38) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 56 items with odds, observed 90.88% over 325 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zasecrcase
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Zasecrcase](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zasecrcase)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Zasecrcase

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zasecrcase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zasecrcase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zasecrcase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zasecrcase?window=all)

Price · $4.38

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $4.12 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.88% · 325 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 96 openings · below min

30 days · 90.88% ±15.64 325 openings

since tracking started · 90.88% ±15.64 325 openings

-0.5% 221.5% 443.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zasecrcase?window=24h) | 1 | 159.59% ±283.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zasecrcase?window=7d) | 96 | 84.16% ±28.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zasecrcase) | 325 | 90.88% ±15.6 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/zasecrcase?window=all) | 325 | 90.88% ±15.6 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 325 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,284 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,152 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $947 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $545 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $405 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $383 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $383 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-well-worn) | 1 in 166,667 | $319 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $293 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $287 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $220 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $173 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52,632 | $161 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-factory-new) | 1 in 40,000 | $153 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 45,455 | $147 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) | 1 in 31,250 | $138 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30,303 | $131 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 29,412 | $118 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 16,949 | $94.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,591 | $54.98 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $54.51 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 3,610 | $53.92 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 2,457 | $50.80 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 2,342 | $47.37 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) | 1 in 1,179 | $47.21 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 1,736 | $46.59 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-field-tested) | 1 in 1,675 | $44.52 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 1,142 | $39.87 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 497 | $30.27 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 360 | $27.43 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $26.66 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 375 | $26.40 | 1.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 217 | $20.73 | 2.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 207 | $20.36 | 2.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142 | $15.03 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 138 | $14.44 | 2.5% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 103 | $14.29 | 3.4% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $13.17 | 2.8% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $12.36 | 3.2% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $11.37 | 3.3% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $10.98 | 2.9% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $10.32 | 3.3% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $9.13 | 3.5% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $8.15 | 3.9% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $6.99 | 4.2% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.86× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $5.74 | 4.5% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $3.80 | 5.6% | 21 | 19.6 | 1.07× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.47 | 5.5% | 21 | 21.1 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.13 | 4.9% | 28 | 21.0 | 1.34× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $3.02 | 4.8% | 18 | 21.3 | 0.85× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.53 | 4.6% | 22 | 24.2 | 0.91× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $2.19 | 4.0% | 21 | 24.3 | 0.86× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.02 | 3.9% | 26 | 25.6 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 10.5% | $1.15 | 2.9% | 25 | 34.0 | 0.74× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 10.2% | $1.09 | 2.7% | 40 | 33.1 | 1.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-battle-scarred) | 11.3% | $0.95 | 2.6% | 41 | 36.6 | 1.12× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/zasecrcase/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=zasecrcase)

[G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) [Luis](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Luis) $4.38 $6.99 1.60x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Илья Золотых](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%98%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D0%97%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%8B%D1%85) $4.38 $1.09 0.25x 2026-11-09 14:05 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) [Илья Золотых](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%98%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D0%97%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%8B%D1%85) $4.38 $3.47 0.79x 2026-11-09 14:05 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) [Илья Золотых](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%98%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D0%97%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%8B%D1%85) $4.38 $2.53 0.58x 2026-11-09 14:05 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Илья Золотых](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%98%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D0%97%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%8B%D1%85) $4.38 $1.09 0.25x 2026-11-09 14:05 UTC

[M4A1-S | Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) [Илья Золотых](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%98%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D0%97%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%8B%D1%85) $4.38 $1.15 0.26x 2026-11-09 14:05 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $4.38 $2.02 0.46x 2026-11-08 20:12 UTC

[AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) [absolut MCLOVIN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/absolut%20MCLOVIN) $4.38 $3.13 0.71x 2026-11-08 18:41 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) [КОТЕЙКА \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%9E%D0%A2%D0%95%D0%99%D0%9A%D0%90%20%3C3) $4.38 $3.80 0.87x 2026-11-08 10:38 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) [КОТЕЙКА \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%9E%D0%A2%D0%95%D0%99%D0%9A%D0%90%20%3C3) $4.38 $2.53 0.58x 2026-11-08 10:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.38 | 94.00% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.51 | 91.29% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.51 | 93.45% | 56 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 45.2% #d32ee6 2.5% rare 0.6% pink 32.8% Legendary 1.0% Classified 7.5% #d32ce6 10.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt