--- title: "Profit Farm case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Profit Farm ($0.49) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 82.89% from 8 items with odds, observed 68.61% over 34.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/156 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Profit Farm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/156) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Profit Farm A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/156?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/156?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/156) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/156?window=all) Price · $0.49 Advertised RTP · 82.89% · EV $0.41 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.61% · 34.7K openings, odds method Variance · 1983.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 5,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6,841 openings · below min 7 days · 72.42% ±51.04 29.3K openings 30 days · 68.61% ±46.86 34.7K openings since tracking started · 68.61% ±46.86 34.7K openings -0.5% 75.5% 151.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/156?window=24h) | 6,841 | 45.43% ±105.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/156?window=7d) | 29.3K | 72.42% ±51.0 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/156) | 34.7K | 68.61% ±46.9 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/156?window=all) | 34.7K | 68.61% ±46.9 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $3,030 | 22.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,956 | 24.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $282 | 8.3% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $1.05 | 18.1% | 2,441 | 2466.0 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $0.38 | 11.2% | 4,241 | 4227.5 | 1.00× | | [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.10 | 3.7% | 5,315 | 5284.3 | 1.01× | | [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-well-worn) | 33.0% | $0.08 | 6.5% | 11,552 | 11618.5 | 0.99× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) | 33.0% | $0.07 | 5.7% | 11,673 | 11625.6 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: profit-farm)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [haha big sword does CLANK!](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/haha%20big%20sword%20does%20CLANK!) $0.49 $1,956 3,993x 2026-11-09 02:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Dericツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Deric%E3%83%84) $0.49 $1,956 3,993x 2026-11-04 18:11 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $0.49 $282 575.6x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $0.49 $282 575.6x 2026-11-07 07:10 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) [FastLive](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/FastLive) $0.49 $282 575.6x 2026-11-05 14:32 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $0.49 $282 575.6x 2026-11-05 05:25 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) [JohnTheVacationer](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/JohnTheVacationer) $0.49 $282 575.6x 2026-11-03 23:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=156) [XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $0.49 $0.07 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $0.49 $0.08 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-well-worn) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $0.49 $0.08 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $0.49 $0.10 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $0.49 $0.38 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-field-tested) [so lucky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/so%20lucky) $0.49 $0.10 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $0.49 $1.05 2.14x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $0.49 $0.10 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-well-worn) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $0.49 $0.08 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $0.49 $0.08 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.49 | 82.89% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 2 33.0% extraordinary 0.0% classified 0.0% restricted 7.0% mil spec 12.0% #87c7ff 15.0% uncommon 33.0% best hit $1,956 (3,993x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.89 on average: an expected loss of $17.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt