--- title: "Back to School Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Back to School Case ($9.14) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 17 items with odds, observed 98.07% over 1,499 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/157 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Back to School Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/157) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Back to School Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/157?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/157?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/157) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/157?window=all) Price · $9.14 Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $7.61 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.07% · 1,499 openings, odds method Variance · 40.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 38 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 126.87% ±75.43 274 openings 7 days · 101.61% ±33.74 1,370 openings 30 days · 98.07% ±32.25 1,499 openings since tracking started · 98.07% ±32.25 1,499 openings 51.0% 127.0% 203.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/157?window=24h) | 274 | 126.87% ±75.4 | +1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/157?window=7d) | 1,370 | 101.61% ±33.7 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/157) | 1,499 | 98.07% ±32.3 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/157?window=all) | 1,499 | 98.07% ±32.3 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,499 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,694 | 22.2% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $528 | 6.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $318 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $223 | 2.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $216 | 2.8% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $162 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $109 | 1.4% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.67× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $99.65 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $67.94 | 2.7% | 8 | 4.5 | 1.78× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $49.83 | 3.3% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.93× | | [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $30.01 | 3.9% | 14 | 15.0 | 0.93× | | [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $14.63 | 3.8% | 30 | 30.0 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $11.06 | 5.3% | 52 | 54.7 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.44 | 4.9% | 64 | 75.0 | 0.85× | | [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $4.80 | 12.6% | 333 | 299.8 | 1.11× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) | 31.2% | $3.15 | 12.9% | 452 | 467.7 | 0.97× | | [Negev \| Power Loader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-battle-scarred) | 35.5% | $1.41 | 6.6% | 526 | 532.9 | 0.99× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: back-to-school)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $9.14 $1,694 185.3x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) [Joseph Joestar skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Joseph%20Joestar%20skins.army) $9.14 $1,694 185.3x 2026-11-08 22:27 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $9.14 $1,694 185.3x 2026-11-08 17:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=157) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $9.14 $3.15 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $9.14 $3.15 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $9.14 $3.15 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $9.14 $1.41 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $9.14 $11.06 1.21x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) [smirker18](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/smirker18) $9.14 $3.15 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $9.14 $1.41 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $9.14 $4.80 0.53x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $9.14 $3.15 0.34x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $9.14 $1.41 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.14 | 83.31% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.6% extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 0.1% Ancient 0.3% rare 0.5% violet 36.5% pink 5.6% classified 5.0% Mythical 20.0% restricted 31.2% best hit $1,694 (185.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt