--- title: "Lucky Knife 10% case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky Knife 10% ($9.99) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.34% from 14 items with odds, observed 95.34% over 2,310 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/159 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Lucky Knife 10%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/159) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Lucky Knife 10% A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/159?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/159?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/159) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/159?window=all) Price · $9.99 Advertised RTP · 83.34% · EV $8.33 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.34% · 2,310 openings, odds method Variance · 12.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 64.65% ±36.42 368 openings 7 days · 97.89% ±15.69 1,983 openings 30 days · 95.34% ±14.54 2,310 openings since tracking started · 95.34% ±14.54 2,310 openings 27.5% 70.8% 114.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/159?window=24h) | 368 | 64.65% ±36.4 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/159?window=7d) | 1,983 | 97.89% ±15.7 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/159) | 2,310 | 95.34% ±14.5 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/159?window=all) | 2,310 | 95.34% ±14.5 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,314 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,536 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $1,186 | 2.1% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $941 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $590 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,500 | $370 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $295 | 2.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $232 | 2.8% | 6 | 2.3 | 2.59× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $124 | 2.2% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.29× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 562 | $122 | 2.6% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 455 | $105 | 2.8% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.38× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $97.43 | 3.5% | 3 | 6.9 | 0.43× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 213 | $80.80 | 4.6% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $62.95 | 63.5% | 209 | 194.4 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.53 | 5.7% | 2,073 | 2082.6 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: lucky-knife-10)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $9.99 $1,536 153.8x 2026-11-04 22:21 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $9.99 $1,186 118.7x 2026-11-08 13:44 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Meeledan](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Meeledan) $9.99 $1,186 118.7x 2026-11-06 06:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=159) [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $9.99 $0.53 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-field-tested) [Siyei](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Siyei) $9.99 $0.53 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-field-tested) [Mhaepotsx ! :\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mhaepotsx%20!%20%3A*-1601602) $9.99 $0.53 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $9.99 $0.53 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-field-tested) [Siyei](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Siyei) $9.99 $0.53 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-field-tested) [Mhaepotsx ! :\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mhaepotsx%20!%20%3A*-1601602) $9.99 $0.53 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $9.99 $0.53 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-field-tested) [Siyei](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Siyei) $9.99 $0.53 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-field-tested) [Mhaepotsx ! :\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mhaepotsx%20!%20%3A*-1601602) $9.99 $0.53 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $9.99 $0.53 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.99 | 83.34% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.2% knifes 0.0% covert knife 0.6% gold 0.2% milspec 90.0% best hit $1,536 (153.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.34 on average: an expected loss of $16.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt