--- title: "F***ing Cold case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "F***ing Cold ($4.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.29% from 12 items with odds, observed 84.55% over 2,824 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/204 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [F\*\*\*ing Cold](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/204) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · F\*\*\*ing Cold A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/204?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/204?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/204) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/204?window=all) Price · $4.00 Advertised RTP · 83.29% · EV $3.33 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.55% · 2,824 openings, odds method Variance · 21.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 66.14% ±46.47 376 openings 7 days · 88.48% ±18.54 2,362 openings 30 days · 84.55% ±16.96 2,824 openings since tracking started · 84.55% ±16.96 2,824 openings 19.0% 66.3% 113.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/204?window=24h) | 376 | 66.14% ±46.5 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/204?window=7d) | 2,362 | 88.48% ±18.5 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/204) | 2,824 | 84.55% ±17.0 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/204?window=all) | 2,824 | 84.55% ±17.0 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,840 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,133 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $866 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $562 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $232 | 2.8% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.64× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $131 | 2.8% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $100 | 3.0% | 6 | 2.8 | 2.11× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $90.46 | 2.7% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $65.01 | 4.9% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $38.53 | 5.8% | 12 | 14.2 | 0.85× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $24.29 | 7.3% | 28 | 28.4 | 0.99× | | [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) | 17.9% | $5.71 | 30.7% | 506 | 508.4 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) | 80.0% | $1.28 | 30.7% | 2,273 | 2272.0 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fcold)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-well-worn) [asdadddadadadawdasdwadsawd](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/asdadddadadadawdasdwadsawd) $4.00 $562 140.6x 2026-11-10 14:53 UTC [P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) [kidnyS](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kidnyS) $4.00 $232 57.93x 2026-11-10 07:24 UTC [P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) [Wasilij Zajcew](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Wasilij%20Zajcew) $4.00 $232 57.93x 2026-11-08 06:06 UTC [P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) [Dj Fattynator](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dj%20Fattynator) $4.00 $232 57.93x 2026-11-08 01:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=204) [P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) [MilanesaConPure |](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MilanesaConPure%20%7C) $4.00 $1.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) [肥羊先生](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E8%82%A5%E7%BE%8A%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F) $4.00 $1.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) [Dapper](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dapper) $4.00 $5.71 1.43x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) [巴拉巴拉DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B7%B4%E6%8B%89%E5%B7%B4%E6%8B%89DK) $4.00 $5.71 1.43x 2026-11-11 15:40 UTC [P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) [Kerowane Gówno |](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kerowane%20G%C3%B3wno%20%7C) $4.00 $1.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:40 UTC [P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) [Szymon Siurek](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Szymon%20Siurek) $4.00 $1.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:40 UTC [Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) [Donut](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Donut) $4.00 $5.71 1.43x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) [RektDynamic](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RektDynamic) $4.00 $1.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) [Forever](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Forever) $4.00 $1.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $4.00 $1.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.00 | 83.29% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.0% covert 0.2% covert knife 0.1% blue 0.3% #d32ce6 0.5% restricted 97.9% best hit $562 (140.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.29 on average: an expected loss of $16.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt