---
title: "Spectrum Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Spectrum Case ($8.42) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.25% from 42 items with odds, observed 59.02% over 1,176 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/212
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Spectrum Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/212)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Spectrum Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/212?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/212?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/212) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/212?window=all)

Price · $8.42

Advertised RTP · 83.25% · EV $7.01 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 59.02% · 1,176 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97 openings · below min

7 days · 55.39% ±24.46 1,017 openings

30 days · 59.02% ±22.75 1,176 openings

since tracking started · 59.02% ±22.75 1,176 openings

-0.5% 67.3% 135.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 83.25% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (36.27% – 81.77%, 1,176 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/212?window=24h) | 97 | 55.07% ±79.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/212?window=7d) | 1,017 | 55.39% ±24.5 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/212) | 1,176 | 59.02% ±22.7 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/212?window=all) | 1,176 | 59.02% ±22.7 | −2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,235 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,166 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,195 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,805 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,403 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,080 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $703 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $676 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $582 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $537 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $528 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $475 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $287 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $272 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $253 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $229 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $220 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $216 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $190 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $176 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $171 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $170 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $168 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $168 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $162 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $143 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $121 | 3.5% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $104 | 5.2% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $61.64 | 5.3% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.81× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $48.02 | 10.3% | 16 | 18.5 | 0.86× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $45.78 | 9.8% | 20 | 18.5 | 1.08× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.85 | 4.2% | 70 | 61.8 | 1.13× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.92 | 4.2% | 65 | 74.1 | 0.88× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.78 | 4.1% | 79 | 74.1 | 1.07× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.47 | 3.8% | 79 | 74.1 | 1.07× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.32 | 3.7% | 83 | 74.1 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $3.94 | 4.5% | 82 | 98.8 | 0.83× |
| [Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-cracked-opal-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $2.18 | 2.5% | 121 | 98.9 | 1.22× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Morris (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.53 | 2.2% | 119 | 123.5 | 0.96× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.39 | 2.0% | 141 | 123.5 | 1.14× |
| [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.37 | 2.0% | 121 | 123.5 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.86 | 1.2% | 105 | 123.5 | 0.85× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.71 | 1.0% | 120 | 123.5 | 0.97× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: spectrum-2-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=212)

[Sawed-Off | Morris (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $8.42 $1.53 0.18x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[G3SG1 | Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $8.42 $1.37 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Morris (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $8.42 $1.53 0.18x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[Tec-9 | Cracked Opal (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-cracked-opal-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $8.42 $2.18 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[G3SG1 | Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $8.42 $1.37 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) [LamaKicker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LamaKicker) $8.42 $3.94 0.47x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[AUG | Triqua (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $8.42 $1.39 0.17x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[Tec-9 | Cracked Opal (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-cracked-opal-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $8.42 $2.18 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $8.42 $3.94 0.47x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[AUG | Triqua (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $8.42 $1.39 0.17x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.42 | 83.25% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% covert 1.3% gold 0.0% covert knife 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% Covert 0.1% classified 3.6% restricted 17.0% violet 12.0% mil spec 8.0% Rare 18.0% milspec 20.0% blue 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.25 on average: an expected loss of $16.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt