---
title: "Operation Hydra Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Operation Hydra Case ($21.12) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 35 items with odds, observed 85.98% over 2,633 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/214
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Operation Hydra Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/214)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Operation Hydra Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/214?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/214?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/214) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/214?window=all)

Price · $21.12

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $17.60 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.98% · 2,633 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.68% ±24.87 477 openings

7 days · 88.89% ±11.35 2,291 openings

30 days · 85.98% ±10.58 2,633 openings

since tracking started · 85.98% ±10.58 2,633 openings

66.0% 91.5% 117.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/214?window=24h) | 477 | 91.68% ±24.9 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/214?window=7d) | 2,291 | 88.89% ±11.3 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/214) | 2,633 | 85.98% ±10.6 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/214?window=all) | 2,633 | 85.98% ±10.6 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,660 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,377 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,580 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,201 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,183 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Factory New) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,704 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,518 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,449 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,396 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,332 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,100 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,070 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,058 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $894 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $835 | 1.2% | 3 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $825 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $735 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $664 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $648 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $601 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $494 | 1.7% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.51× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $493 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $368 | 2.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $141 | 1.6% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $130 | 2.2% | 7 | 8.0 | 0.88× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $77.51 | 2.2% | 18 | 13.3 | 1.35× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $67.79 | 3.1% | 28 | 21.3 | 1.32× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $64.75 | 3.3% | 23 | 23.9 | 0.96× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $61.15 | 3.5% | 18 | 26.6 | 0.68× |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $59.70 | 3.4% | 39 | 26.6 | 1.47× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $54.63 | 3.9% | 35 | 33.3 | 1.05× |
| [Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-cut-out-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $25.01 | 3.9% | 70 | 73.2 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) | 18.0% | $13.76 | 14.1% | 472 | 478.8 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 19.8% | $10.75 | 12.1% | 518 | 526.6 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Macabre (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-factory-new) | 23.0% | $9.52 | 12.4% | 644 | 611.8 | 1.05× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 30.0% | $8.92 | 15.2% | 769 | 798.0 | 0.96× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: operation-hydra-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) [Kojak](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kojak) $21.12 $894 42.31x 2026-11-07 06:22 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-factory-new) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $21.12 $835 39.55x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $21.12 $835 39.55x 2026-11-07 08:00 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-factory-new) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $21.12 $835 39.55x 2026-11-07 06:21 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $21.12 $825 39.05x 2026-11-07 11:41 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $21.12 $825 39.05x 2026-11-07 09:18 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $21.12 $735 34.80x 2026-11-11 05:07 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-factory-new) [McChonky 1k+ LBs](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/McChonky%201k%2B%20LBs) $21.12 $601 28.44x 2026-11-08 02:13 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $21.12 $601 28.44x 2026-11-07 10:14 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=214)

[MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) [MerCury](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MerCury) $21.12 $13.76 0.65x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) [九月落雨画秋凉](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%B9%9D%E6%9C%88%E8%90%BD%E9%9B%A8%E7%94%BB%E7%A7%8B%E5%87%89) $21.12 $8.92 0.42x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC

[FAMAS | Macabre (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-factory-new) [store](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/store) $21.12 $9.52 0.45x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

[FAMAS | Macabre (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-factory-new) [MerCury](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MerCury) $21.12 $9.52 0.45x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) [5000ml](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/5000ml) $21.12 $8.92 0.42x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

[FAMAS | Macabre (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-factory-new) [916284248](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/916284248) $21.12 $9.52 0.45x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) [Chety愛](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Chety%E6%84%9B) $21.12 $8.92 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[FAMAS | Macabre (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-factory-new) [BlueBeard](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BlueBeard) $21.12 $9.52 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[FAMAS | Macabre (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-factory-new) [Pepsiman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pepsiman) $21.12 $9.52 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) [Ducky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Ducky) $21.12 $10.75 0.51x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $21.12 | 83.33% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.1% extraordinary 0.2% #eb4b4b 0.0% Extraordinary 0.1% covert 0.0% classified 0.3% restricted 4.3% mil spec 49.4% #4b69ff 22.5% milspec 23.0% best hit $894 (42.31x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt