--- title: "GAMMA CASE case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "GAMMA CASE ($3.58) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.24% from 33 items with odds, observed 83.62% over 3,996 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/218 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [GAMMA CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/218) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · GAMMA CASE A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/218?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/218?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/218) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/218?window=all) Price · $3.58 Advertised RTP · 83.24% · EV $2.98 from 33 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.62% · 3,996 openings, odds method Variance · 11.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.72% ±30.64 482 openings 7 days · 84.69% ±11.84 3,231 openings 30 days · 83.62% ±10.64 3,996 openings since tracking started · 83.62% ±10.64 3,996 openings 52.5% 83.7% 115.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/218?window=24h) | 482 | 83.72% ±30.6 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/218?window=7d) | 3,231 | 84.69% ±11.8 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/218) | 3,996 | 83.62% ±10.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/218?window=all) | 3,996 | 83.62% ±10.6 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,011 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $497 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $495 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $475 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $386 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $382 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $379 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $316 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $278 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $237 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $233 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $227 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $211 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $200 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $197 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $191 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $180 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $142 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $130 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $112 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.66× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $106 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $41.06 | 1.4% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $14.79 | 2.5% | 16 | 20.1 | 0.80× | | [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $14.62 | 2.5% | 19 | 20.1 | 0.95× | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $8.46 | 3.3% | 51 | 46.6 | 1.09× | | [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $7.75 | 7.8% | 116 | 120.3 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $7.27 | 7.3% | 127 | 120.3 | 1.06× | | [P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) | 11.0% | $3.61 | 13.3% | 454 | 441.2 | 1.03× | | [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-factory-new) | 11.0% | $2.94 | 10.9% | 429 | 441.2 | 0.97× | | [PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) | 12.0% | $2.14 | 8.6% | 488 | 481.3 | 1.01× | | [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 12.0% | $2.05 | 8.3% | 468 | 481.3 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1.61 | 6.5% | 488 | 481.3 | 1.01× | | [SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-factory-new) | 15.5% | $0.97 | 5.0% | 607 | 621.7 | 0.98× | | [Nova \| Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) | 18.0% | $0.83 | 5.0% | 734 | 722.0 | 1.02× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: gamma-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-factory-new) [Toot](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Toot) $3.58 $495 138.3x 2026-11-08 00:08 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [tt.tv/alblive](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/tt.tv%2Falblive) $3.58 $386 107.8x 2026-11-09 03:47 UTC [★ Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) [Hangover](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hangover) $3.58 $233 65.03x 2026-11-07 17:54 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [Evil Genius](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Evil%20Genius) $3.58 $200 55.83x 2026-11-03 12:02 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) [冰糖肥肠](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%86%B0%E7%B3%96%E8%82%A5%E8%82%A0) $3.58 $197 54.91x 2026-11-07 05:28 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) [ElProazo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/ElProazo) $3.58 $180 50.25x 2026-11-06 18:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=218) [Nova | Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) [Hajzlát](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hajzl%C3%A1t) $3.58 $0.83 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [P90 | Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) [Miguel](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miguel) $3.58 $7.75 2.16x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-factory-new) [Kapitan Gówienow](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kapitan%20G%C3%B3wienow) $3.58 $0.97 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [Nova | Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) [loens](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/loens) $3.58 $0.83 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) [HLXG](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HLXG) $3.58 $2.05 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) [Miguel](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miguel) $3.58 $1.61 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [MAC-10 | Carnivore (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-factory-new) [Samy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Samy) $3.58 $2.94 0.82x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Nova | Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) [simba](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/simba) $3.58 $0.83 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [P90 | Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) [Hajzlát](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hajzl%C3%A1t) $3.58 $7.75 2.16x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) [Shotits<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Shotits%26lt%3B3) $3.58 $2.05 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.58 | 83.24% | 33 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% Immortal 0.0% sunny 0.0% classified 0.1% restricted 4.0% #8847ff 1.2% Mythical 3.0% Mil Spec Grade 11.0% milspec 26.5% #4b69ff 12.0% blue 12.0% mil spec 30.0% best hit $495 (138.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.24 on average: an expected loss of $16.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt