---
title: "ESPORTS 2013 WINTER CASE on DaddySkins: odds & RTP"
description: "ESPORTS 2013 WINTER CASE ($14.83) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 70 items with odds, observed 71.89% over 777 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/220
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [ESPORTS 2013 WINTER CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/220)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · ESPORTS 2013 WINTER CASE

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/220?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/220?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/220) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/220?window=all)

Price · $14.83

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $12.36 from 70 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.89% · 777 openings, odds method

Variance · 16.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 37 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 94.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84 openings · below min

7 days · 69.92% ±31.10 642 openings

30 days · 71.89% ±28.27 777 openings

since tracking started · 71.89% ±28.27 777 openings

-0.5% 74.0% 148.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/220?window=24h) | 84 | 61.98% ±86.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/220?window=7d) | 642 | 69.92% ±31.1 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/220) | 777 | 71.89% ±28.3 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/220?window=all) | 777 | 71.89% ±28.3 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 70 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 781 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,582 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,532 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,388 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,312 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,127 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,817 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,771 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,376 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,326 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,255 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,237 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,203 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,169 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,056 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,050 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,049 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,042 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,012 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $945 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $931 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $874 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $864 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $864 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $720 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $694 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $683 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $666 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $615 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $531 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $500 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $456 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $446 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $413 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $400 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $392 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $389 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $375 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $369 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $343 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $341 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $335 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $323 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $314 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $306 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $290 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $268 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $241 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $225 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $214 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $211 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $183 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $179 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $179 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $158 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $150 | 2.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $150 | 2.4% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.56× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $147 | 2.4% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $137 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $132 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $129 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $125 | 2.0% | 5 | 1.6 | 3.20× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $64.24 | 5.2% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $35.47 | 5.7% | 23 | 15.6 | 1.47× |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $14.63 | 10.7% | 72 | 70.3 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 11.0% | $7.08 | 6.3% | 91 | 85.9 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) | 12.0% | $4.47 | 4.3% | 90 | 93.8 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 13.1% | $4.04 | 4.3% | 111 | 102.1 | 1.09× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) | 14.2% | $3.48 | 4.0% | 105 | 110.9 | 0.95× |
| [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) | 17.0% | $3.13 | 4.3% | 126 | 132.8 | 0.95× |
| [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 18.0% | $3.10 | 4.5% | 135 | 140.6 | 0.96× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: esports-2013-winter-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=220)

[Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) [Hajzlát](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hajzl%C3%A1t) $14.83 $3.13 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) [Bugghappen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Bugghappen) $14.83 $4.47 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-factory-new) [Ninguém404](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Ningu%C3%A9m404) $14.83 $14.63 0.99x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-factory-new) [Cardano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Cardano) $14.83 $4.04 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-factory-new) [abd28](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/abd28) $14.83 $14.63 0.99x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) [GustaGOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/GustaGOD) $14.83 $147 9.89x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $14.83 $14.63 0.99x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) [Johnny ´PP\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Johnny%20%C2%B4PP%60) $14.83 $3.10 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) [少女情怀总是诗๑](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B0%91%E5%A5%B3%E6%83%85%E6%80%80%E6%80%BB%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%97%E0%B9%91) $14.83 $3.13 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) [陈大佬](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%99%88%E5%A4%A7%E4%BD%AC) $14.83 $3.13 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.83 | 83.33% | 70 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.1% covert 1.3% Immortal 0.0% knifes 0.4% covert knife 0.4% sunny 0.0% classified 1.4% Mythical 11.0% mil spec 85.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt