---
title: "FALCHION CASE case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FALCHION CASE ($3.75) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.26% from 28 items with odds, observed 79.46% over 3,053 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/221
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [FALCHION CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/221)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · FALCHION CASE

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/221?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/221?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/221) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/221?window=all)

Price · $3.75

Advertised RTP · 83.26% · EV $3.12 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.46% · 3,053 openings, odds method

Variance · 16.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75.72% ±43.17 349 openings

7 days · 77.83% ±16.09 2,513 openings

30 days · 79.46% ±14.60 3,053 openings

since tracking started · 79.46% ±14.60 3,053 openings

32.0% 75.8% 119.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/221?window=24h) | 349 | 75.72% ±43.2 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/221?window=7d) | 2,513 | 77.83% ±16.1 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/221) | 3,053 | 79.46% ±14.6 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/221?window=all) | 3,053 | 79.46% ±14.6 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,056 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,564 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $963 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $602 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $478 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $355 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $282 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $257 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $253 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $237 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $223 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $212 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $199 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $173 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $137 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $80.55 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $68.52 | 1.1% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.27× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $47.15 | 1.5% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.31× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $19.45 | 2.2% | 8 | 10.7 | 0.75× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $18.48 | 3.1% | 14 | 15.9 | 0.88× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $14.64 | 4.7% | 27 | 30.6 | 0.88× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $14.56 | 4.7% | 37 | 30.6 | 1.21× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $10.01 | 4.5% | 37 | 42.8 | 0.86× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $8.73 | 7.0% | 77 | 76.4 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.21 | 6.0% | 112 | 91.7 | 1.22× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 13.0% | $3.03 | 12.6% | 389 | 397.3 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 17.0% | $2.34 | 12.7% | 513 | 519.5 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.15 | 17.2% | 771 | 764.0 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) | 35.0% | $1.16 | 13.0% | 1,061 | 1069.6 | 0.99× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: falchion-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-factory-new) [+D'GEAR+](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%2BD'GEAR%2B) $3.75 $223 59.38x 2026-11-04 04:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=221)

[UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) [MiCkEy MoUse\`│Crazy™](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MiCkEy%20MoUse%60%E2%94%82Crazy%E2%84%A2) $3.75 $1.16 0.31x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC

[UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) [AYLİN](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/AYL%C4%B0N) $3.75 $1.16 0.31x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC

[UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) [Anggur Merah](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Anggur%20Merah) $3.75 $1.16 0.31x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) [✪ Don Fuerte](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20Don%20Fuerte) $3.75 $3.03 0.81x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC

[Nova | Ranger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-factory-new) [Miki](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miki) $3.75 $2.15 0.57x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC

[UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) [LukitaS](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LukitaS) $3.75 $1.16 0.31x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC

[UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) [臆说](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E8%87%86%E8%AF%B4) $3.75 $1.16 0.31x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) [✪ Craze csgotower.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20Craze%20csgotower.com) $3.75 $2.34 0.62x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC

[UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) [HAOVAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HAOVAN) $3.75 $1.16 0.31x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC

[Nova | Ranger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-factory-new) [yS](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/yS) $3.75 $2.15 0.57x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.75 | 83.26% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed knifes 0.0% covert 0.0% covert knife 0.0% pink 0.0% classified 0.1% violet 0.3% restricted 5.4% Rare 1.0% mil spec 76.0% #4b69ff 17.0% best hit $223 (59.38x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.26 on average: an expected loss of $16.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt