---
title: "Operation Phoenix Weapon Case on DaddySkins: odds & RTP"
description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/223
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Operation Phoenix Weapon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/223)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/223?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/223?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/223) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/223?window=all)

Price · $6.61

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $5.51 from 68 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.62% · 1,653 openings, odds method

Variance · 154.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 190 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 132 openings · below min

7 days · 80.83% ±66.00 1,363 openings

30 days · 77.62% ±59.93 1,653 openings

since tracking started · 77.62% ±59.93 1,653 openings

-0.5% 149.0% 298.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/223?window=24h) | 132 | 85.65% ±212.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/223?window=7d) | 1,363 | 80.83% ±66.0 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/223) | 1,653 | 77.62% ±59.9 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/223?window=all) | 1,653 | 77.62% ±59.9 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,653 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $9,582 | 8.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,532 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,312 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,817 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,771 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,376 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,326 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,255 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,237 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,169 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,056 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,050 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,049 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,042 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,012 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $945 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $931 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $874 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $864 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $864 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $720 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $694 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $683 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $666 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $615 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $531 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $500 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $456 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $446 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $413 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $400 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $392 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $389 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $375 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $369 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $343 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $341 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $335 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $323 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $314 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $306 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $290 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $273 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $241 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $225 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $214 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $211 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $183 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $179 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $179 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $176 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $158 | 1.4% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $150 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $137 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $132 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $129 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $127 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $125 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $24.07 | 1.1% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.21× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $21.31 | 1.0% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $17.70 | 1.6% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $17.56 | 1.6% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $11.57 | 2.1% | 21 | 16.5 | 1.27× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $11.52 | 2.1% | 12 | 16.5 | 0.73× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $3.85 | 10.5% | 243 | 247.9 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.16 | 11.5% | 327 | 330.6 | 0.99× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-factory-new) | 25.7% | $1.14 | 5.3% | 440 | 425.2 | 1.03× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 35.0% | $1.12 | 7.1% | 577 | 578.5 | 1.00× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: operation-phoenix-weapon-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) [Akino](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Akino) $6.61 $1,326 200.5x 2026-11-09 11:04 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [\[INDO.\] MrCelloz](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BINDO.%5D%20MrCelloz) $6.61 $1,042 157.6x 2026-11-04 16:00 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [? ? ?.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%3F%20%3F%20%3F.) $6.61 $456 68.97x 2026-11-10 20:17 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) [L'Italiano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/L'Italiano) $6.61 $335 50.70x 2026-11-09 10:03 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=223)

[USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $6.61 $11.57 1.75x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $6.61 $1.12 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $6.61 $3.85 0.58x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[Negev | Terrain (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $6.61 $1.14 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[Negev | Terrain (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $6.61 $1.14 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[Negev | Terrain (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-factory-new) [Senior Vac](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Senior%20Vac) $6.61 $1.14 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $6.61 $1.12 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Corporal (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $6.61 $3.16 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[Negev | Terrain (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $6.61 $1.14 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[Negev | Terrain (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $6.61 $1.14 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.61 | 83.33% | 68 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% covert 0.5% Immortal 0.0% knifes 0.1% covert knife 0.1% sunny 0.0% classified 0.5% restricted 1.8% Legendary 0.3% Mythical 1.0% mil spec 75.7% Mil Spec 20.0% best hit $1,326 (200.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt