---
title: "OPERATION VANGUARD WEAPON CASE on DaddySkins: odds & RTP"
description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/224
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [OPERATION VANGUARD WEAPON CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/224)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · OPERATION VANGUARD WEAPON CASE

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/224?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/224?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/224) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/224?window=all)

Price · $7.87

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $6.56 from 71 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.27% · 2,434 openings, odds method

Variance · 25.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.32% ±54.66 326 openings

7 days · 84.28% ±21.80 2,049 openings

30 days · 81.27% ±20.00 2,434 openings

since tracking started · 81.27% ±20.00 2,434 openings

22.0% 77.3% 132.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/224?window=24h) | 326 | 77.32% ±54.7 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/224?window=7d) | 2,049 | 84.28% ±21.8 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/224) | 2,434 | 81.27% ±20.0 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/224?window=all) | 2,434 | 81.27% ±20.0 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 71 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,441 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,582 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,817 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,298 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,237 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,169 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,056 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,050 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,029 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,012 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $951 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $931 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $900 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $874 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $864 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $864 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $807 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $790 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $777 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $720 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $694 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $683 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $666 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $656 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $615 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $587 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $574 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $551 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $531 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $500 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $456 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $446 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $413 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $400 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $392 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $389 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $375 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $369 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $343 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $341 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $335 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $330 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $323 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $314 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $306 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $290 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $241 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $225 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $214 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $211 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $208 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $183 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $179 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $179 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $158 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $150 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $137 | 1.0% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.28× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $132 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $129 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $125 | 1.0% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.28× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $63.49 | 1.9% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $49.44 | 2.3% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.68× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $45.32 | 2.4% | 10 | 8.5 | 1.17× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $39.58 | 3.0% | 10 | 12.2 | 0.82× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $38.46 | 2.9% | 5 | 12.2 | 0.41× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $12.99 | 3.2% | 51 | 39.7 | 1.28× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $8.79 | 8.0% | 161 | 146.5 | 1.10× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $8.30 | 8.9% | 159 | 170.9 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.65 | 8.6% | 247 | 244.1 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 15.0% | $4.46 | 10.2% | 356 | 366.1 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 18.0% | $4.03 | 11.1% | 473 | 439.4 | 1.08× |
| [G3SG1 \| Murky (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-factory-new) | 40.0% | $2.40 | 14.6% | 946 | 976.4 | 0.97× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: operation-vanguard-weapon-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) [full of sorrow](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/full%20of%20sorrow) $7.87 $1,237 157.1x 2026-11-10 03:12 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [TheInsaneGirl](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/TheInsaneGirl) $7.87 $500 63.53x 2026-11-09 17:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=224)

[UMP-45 | Delusion (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-factory-new) [SysteM](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SysteM) $7.87 $5.65 0.72x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) [九月落雨画秋凉](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%B9%9D%E6%9C%88%E8%90%BD%E9%9B%A8%E7%94%BB%E7%A7%8B%E5%87%89) $7.87 $4.03 0.51x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC

[G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $7.87 $2.40 0.30x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC

[G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-factory-new) [ziuq](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/ziuq) $7.87 $2.40 0.30x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC

[UMP-45 | Delusion (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-factory-new) [YT/iZerxy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/YT%2FiZerxy) $7.87 $5.65 0.72x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) [SysteM](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SysteM) $7.87 $4.03 0.51x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC

[G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $7.87 $2.40 0.30x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC

[G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-factory-new) [Eh Grips](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Eh%20Grips) $7.87 $2.40 0.30x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC

[G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-factory-new) [916284248](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/916284248) $7.87 $2.40 0.30x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC

[G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-factory-new) [t3m4](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/t3m4) $7.87 $2.40 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.87 | 83.33% | 71 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% covert 0.3% Immortal 0.0% knifes 0.1% covert knife 0.1% gold 0.0% sunny 0.0% restricted 7.5% classified 1.4% Mythical 1.6% Mil Spec Grade 6.0% Mil Spec 10.0% mil spec 73.0% best hit $1,237 (157.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt