---
title: "CS:GO Weapon Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS:GO Weapon Case ($49.39) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 69 items with odds, observed 87.76% over 411 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/225
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CS:GO Weapon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/225)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CS:GO Weapon Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/225?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/225?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/225) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/225?window=all)

Price · $49.39

Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $41.15 from 69 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.76% · 411 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94 openings · below min

7 days · 86.94% ±17.39 371 openings

30 days · 87.76% ±16.52 411 openings

since tracking started · 87.76% ±16.52 411 openings

41.0% 76.3% 111.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/225?window=24h) | 94 | 76.38% ±34.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/225?window=7d) | 371 | 86.94% ±17.4 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/225) | 411 | 87.76% ±16.5 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/225?window=all) | 411 | 87.76% ±16.5 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 415 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $12.3K | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,582 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,702 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,532 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,388 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,312 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,127 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,817 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,771 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,376 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,326 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,255 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,237 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,203 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,169 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,133 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,056 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,050 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,049 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,042 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,012 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $945 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $931 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $874 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $864 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $864 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $745 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $720 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $694 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $683 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $666 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $615 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $531 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $500 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $456 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $446 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $413 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $400 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $392 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $389 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $375 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $369 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $343 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $341 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $335 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $323 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $314 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $306 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $290 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $244 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $241 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $225 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $214 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $211 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $192 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $183 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $179 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $179 | 1.1% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.89× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $158 | 1.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $157 | 1.9% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $150 | 3.7% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.45× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $145 | 3.5% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $137 | 3.3% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.45× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $132 | 3.2% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.20× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $129 | 4.7% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.12× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $125 | 4.6% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 11.0% | $62.90 | 16.8% | 36 | 45.6 | 0.79× |
| [AUG \| Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) | 39.0% | $20.85 | 19.8% | 157 | 161.8 | 0.97× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 39.9% | $20.18 | 19.6% | 175 | 165.6 | 1.06× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: csgo-weapon-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) [KERORO\_GUNSO(GILMER)](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/KERORO_GUNSO%28GILMER%29) $49.39 $694 14.04x 2026-11-04 16:12 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $49.39 $666 13.48x 2026-11-10 23:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=225)

[MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) [Valkyrie](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Valkyrie) $49.39 $20.18 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) [Electric Sun](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Electric%20Sun) $49.39 $20.85 0.42x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) [wikl](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/wikl) $49.39 $20.18 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) [Valkyrie](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Valkyrie) $49.39 $62.90 1.27x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) [Electric Sun](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Electric%20Sun) $49.39 $20.18 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) [wikl](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/wikl) $49.39 $20.85 0.42x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $49.39 $20.85 0.42x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC

[AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $49.39 $20.85 0.42x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC

[AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $49.39 $20.85 0.42x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC

[MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $49.39 $20.18 0.41x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $49.39 | 83.32% | 69 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.0% Covert 0.2% Immortal 0.0% knifes 1.3% classified 0.1% covert knife 1.9% sunny 0.0% restricted 1.6% Rare 11.0% mil spec 39.0% blue 39.9% best hit $694 (14.04x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt