---
title: "CS:GO WEAPON CASE 2 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS:GO WEAPON CASE 2 ($26.08) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 71 items with odds, observed 78.60% over 832 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/226
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CS:GO WEAPON CASE 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/226)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CS:GO WEAPON CASE 2

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/226?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/226?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/226) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/226?window=all)

Price · $26.08

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $21.73 from 71 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.60% · 832 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 74.57% ±41.58 169 openings

7 days · 73.81% ±20.24 713 openings

30 days · 78.60% ±18.74 832 openings

since tracking started · 78.60% ±18.74 832 openings

32.5% 74.8% 117.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/226?window=24h) | 169 | 74.57% ±41.6 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/226?window=7d) | 713 | 73.81% ±20.2 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/226) | 832 | 78.60% ±18.7 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/226?window=all) | 832 | 78.60% ±18.7 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 71 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 862 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $12.3K | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,582 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,702 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,532 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,388 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,312 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,127 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,817 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,771 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,376 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,326 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,255 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,237 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,203 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,169 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,056 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,050 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,049 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,042 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,012 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $945 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $931 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $874 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $864 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $864 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $720 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $694 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $683 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $666 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $615 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $531 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $500 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $456 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $446 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $413 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $400 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $392 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $389 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $375 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $369 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $353 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $343 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $341 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $335 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $323 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $314 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $306 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $290 | 1.3% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $285 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $241 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $225 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $214 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $183 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $179 | 0.8% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $179 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $158 | 1.1% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.32× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $150 | 1.4% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $137 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $132 | 2.4% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 196 | $129 | 3.0% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $125 | 6.1% | 6 | 9.1 | 0.66× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $76.31 | 7.4% | 18 | 18.1 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $40.36 | 9.5% | 58 | 44.0 | 1.32× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $29.88 | 7.2% | 39 | 44.8 | 0.87× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $29.20 | 7.0% | 49 | 44.8 | 1.09× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $20.25 | 4.8% | 41 | 44.8 | 0.91× |
| [Nova \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $17.67 | 4.2% | 45 | 44.8 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 17.0% | $15.14 | 11.8% | 149 | 146.5 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 17.0% | $5.22 | 4.1% | 141 | 146.5 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-factory-new) | 17.0% | $4.25 | 3.3% | 143 | 146.5 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-factory-new) | 17.0% | $4.19 | 3.3% | 150 | 146.5 | 1.02× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: csgo-weapon-case-2)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=226)

[Tec-9 | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) [Gl\\u00fcck](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Gl%5Cu00fcck) $26.08 $5.22 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[Nova | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) [kevinlowroller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kevinlowroller) $26.08 $17.67 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) [Rojas](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Rojas) $26.08 $29.88 1.15x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) [Gl\\u00fcck](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Gl%5Cu00fcck) $26.08 $15.14 0.58x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[Tec-9 | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) [kevinlowroller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kevinlowroller) $26.08 $5.22 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) [Rojas](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Rojas) $26.08 $76.31 2.93x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) [Mutisaugustasm](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mutisaugustasm) $26.08 $15.14 0.58x 2026-11-11 06:22 UTC

[Nova | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) [onlyfans.com/Seyden](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/onlyfans.com%2FSeyden) $26.08 $17.67 0.68x 2026-11-11 06:22 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) [Mutisaugustasm](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mutisaugustasm) $26.08 $15.14 0.58x 2026-11-11 06:21 UTC

[Tec-9 | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) [onlyfans.com/Seyden](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/onlyfans.com%2FSeyden) $26.08 $5.22 0.20x 2026-11-11 06:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $26.08 | 83.31% | 71 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.2% Covert 0.2% Immortal 0.0% knifes 0.7% covert knife 0.8% sunny 0.0% classified 2.2% restricted 20.7% mil spec 39.2% Mil Spec 17.0% milspec 17.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt