---
title: "CS:GO WEAPON CASE 3 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS:GO WEAPON CASE 3 ($12.76) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 69 items with odds, observed 83.27% over 1,182 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/227
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CS:GO WEAPON CASE 3](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/227)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CS:GO WEAPON CASE 3

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/227?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/227?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/227) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/227?window=all)

Price · $12.76

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $10.63 from 69 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.27% · 1,182 openings, odds method

Variance · 17.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 94.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 57.35% ±82.05 100 openings

7 days · 84.59% ±26.09 989 openings

30 days · 83.27% ±23.87 1,182 openings

since tracking started · 83.27% ±23.87 1,182 openings

-0.5% 69.8% 140.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/227?window=24h) | 100 | 57.35% ±82.1 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/227?window=7d) | 989 | 84.59% ±26.1 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/227) | 1,182 | 83.27% ±23.9 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/227?window=all) | 1,182 | 83.27% ±23.9 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,182 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,582 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,388 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,312 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,127 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,817 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,771 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,376 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,326 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,255 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,237 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,203 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,169 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,056 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,050 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,049 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,042 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,012 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $945 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $931 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $874 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $864 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $864 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $720 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $694 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $683 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $666 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $615 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $531 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $500 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $456 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $446 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $413 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $400 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $392 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $389 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $375 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $369 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $343 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $341 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $335 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $323 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $314 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $306 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $290 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $241 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $225 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $214 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $211 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $183 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $179 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $179 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $158 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $150 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $147 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $137 | 1.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.69× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $132 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $129 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $129 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.69× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $125 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $76.15 | 1.1% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.69× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $54.26 | 1.0% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $46.52 | 0.9% | 6 | 2.4 | 2.54× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $44.45 | 0.8% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $30.14 | 1.4% | 9 | 5.9 | 1.52× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $19.96 | 1.9% | 12 | 11.8 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $15.30 | 3.9% | 32 | 31.7 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) | 28.0% | $7.11 | 18.7% | 312 | 331.0 | 0.94× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) | 33.0% | $6.66 | 20.7% | 377 | 390.1 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Red FragCam (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-factory-new) | 33.0% | $6.40 | 19.9% | 415 | 390.1 | 1.06× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: csgo-weapon-case-3)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) [Sharingan](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sharingan) $12.76 $1,376 107.9x 2026-11-04 20:11 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=227)

[CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) [Paula](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Paula) $12.76 $6.66 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) [MrGuitarBoi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MrGuitarBoi) $12.76 $6.66 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-factory-new) [Grud](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Grud) $12.76 $15.30 1.20x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) [Ronin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Ronin) $12.76 $6.66 0.52x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) [HARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HARD) $12.76 $7.11 0.56x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC

[P2000 | Red FragCam (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-factory-new) [Garri Gudiηi 四](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Garri%20Gudi%CE%B7i%20%E5%9B%9B) $12.76 $6.40 0.50x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) [✪1gnii⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA1gnii%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $12.76 $6.66 0.52x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) [✪Arsicarioツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AAArsicario%E3%83%84) $12.76 $7.11 0.56x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) [Mr.Proper](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mr.Proper) $12.76 $7.11 0.56x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) [V3RC3T](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/V3RC3T) $12.76 $6.66 0.52x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.76 | 83.31% | 69 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.1% covert 0.5% Immortal 0.0% knifes 0.2% covert knife 0.2% sunny 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.1% restricted 3.3% mil spec 29.4% classified 0.4% #8847ff 33.0% Mil Spec Grade 33.0% best hit $1,376 (107.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt