---
title: "WINTER OFFENSIVE WEAPON CASE on DaddySkins: odds & RTP"
description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/228
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [WINTER OFFENSIVE WEAPON CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/228)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · WINTER OFFENSIVE WEAPON CASE

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/228?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/228?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/228) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/228?window=all)

Price · $9.70

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $8.08 from 70 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.85% · 1,024 openings, odds method

Variance · 18.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.96% ±77.44 117 openings

7 days · 87.70% ±29.45 809 openings

30 days · 85.85% ±26.17 1,024 openings

since tracking started · 85.85% ±26.17 1,024 openings

19.0% 97.0% 175.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/228?window=24h) | 117 | 96.96% ±77.4 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/228?window=7d) | 809 | 87.70% ±29.4 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/228) | 1,024 | 85.85% ±26.2 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/228?window=all) | 1,024 | 85.85% ±26.2 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 70 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,027 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,582 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,388 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,312 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,127 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,817 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,771 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,376 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,326 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,255 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,237 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,203 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,169 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,056 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,050 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,049 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,042 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,012 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $945 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $931 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $874 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $864 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $864 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $720 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $694 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $683 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $666 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $615 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $531 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $500 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $464 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $456 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $446 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $413 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $400 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $392 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $389 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $375 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $369 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $343 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $341 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $335 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $323 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $314 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $306 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $290 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $241 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $225 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $214 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $211 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $183 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $179 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $179 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $167 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $158 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $150 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $137 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $136 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $132 | 1.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $129 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $125 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.95× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $116 | 2.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $50.82 | 3.1% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $33.28 | 2.1% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $21.85 | 2.7% | 14 | 10.3 | 1.36× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $19.16 | 4.7% | 24 | 20.5 | 1.17× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.52 | 7.7% | 61 | 51.4 | 1.19× |
| [Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $11.15 | 13.8% | 94 | 102.7 | 0.92× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-factory-new) | 20.0% | $4.70 | 11.6% | 205 | 205.4 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) | 25.0% | $4.54 | 14.0% | 241 | 256.8 | 0.94× |
| [M249 \| Magma (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-factory-new) | 35.0% | $3.46 | 15.0% | 368 | 359.4 | 1.02× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: winter-offensive-weapon-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=228)

[PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-factory-new) [✵?.?.?.?.✵](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%B5%3F.%3F.%3F.%3F.%E2%9C%B5) $9.70 $4.70 0.48x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) [Tweek](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Tweek) $9.70 $4.54 0.47x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[M249 | Magma (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-factory-new) [Lil.Jet](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Lil.Jet) $9.70 $3.46 0.36x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) [Valkyrie](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Valkyrie) $9.70 $19.16 1.98x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) [Electric Sun](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Electric%20Sun) $9.70 $4.54 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) [wikl](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/wikl) $9.70 $4.54 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-factory-new) [Valkyrie](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Valkyrie) $9.70 $4.70 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) [Electric Sun](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Electric%20Sun) $9.70 $4.54 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-factory-new) [wikl](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/wikl) $9.70 $4.70 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

[M249 | Magma (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-factory-new) [Valkyrie](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Valkyrie) $9.70 $3.46 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.70 | 83.31% | 70 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% covert 0.4% Immortal 0.0% knifes 0.1% covert knife 0.1% sunny 0.0% classified 0.8% restricted 8.5% Mil Spec Grade 10.0% mil spec 80.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt