---
title: "OPERATION BRAVO CASE case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "OPERATION BRAVO CASE ($62.82) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 75 items with odds, observed 78.07% over 805 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/229
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [OPERATION BRAVO CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/229)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · OPERATION BRAVO CASE

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/229?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/229?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/229) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/229?window=all)

Price · $62.82

Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $52.34 from 75 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.07% · 805 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 63 openings · below min

7 days · 75.09% ±17.37 613 openings

30 days · 78.07% ±15.16 805 openings

since tracking started · 78.07% ±15.16 805 openings

11.5% 66.3% 121.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/229?window=24h) | 63 | 66.16% ±54.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/229?window=7d) | 613 | 75.09% ±17.4 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/229) | 805 | 78.07% ±15.2 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/229?window=all) | 805 | 78.07% ±15.2 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 75 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 805 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $12.3K | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $9,582 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,702 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,508 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,532 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,388 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,312 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,127 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,817 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,771 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,376 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,326 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,255 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,237 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,203 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,169 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,056 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,050 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,049 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,042 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,012 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $945 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $931 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $874 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $864 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $864 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $720 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $694 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $683 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $666 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $615 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $554 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $531 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $500 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $456 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $446 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $413 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $400 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $392 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $389 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $375 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $369 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $343 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $341 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $335 | 0.3% | 3 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $323 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $314 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $306 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $296 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $290 | 0.6% | 4 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $288 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $241 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $225 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $214 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $211 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $184 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $183 | 0.9% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.48× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $179 | 0.9% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.49× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $179 | 1.7% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $158 | 1.5% | 7 | 4.0 | 1.74× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $150 | 1.4% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.49× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $137 | 5.2% | 16 | 16.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $132 | 5.0% | 12 | 16.1 | 0.75× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $129 | 4.9% | 18 | 16.1 | 1.12× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $125 | 4.8% | 18 | 16.1 | 1.12× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $116 | 4.4% | 10 | 16.1 | 0.62× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $104 | 4.0% | 23 | 16.1 | 1.43× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $99.11 | 5.7% | 19 | 24.1 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $66.59 | 8.9% | 55 | 56.4 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) | 10.0% | $32.89 | 6.3% | 83 | 80.5 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 10.0% | $25.45 | 4.9% | 78 | 80.5 | 0.97× |
| [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-factory-new) | 10.0% | $24.70 | 4.7% | 90 | 80.5 | 1.12× |
| [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-factory-new) | 10.8% | $22.17 | 4.6% | 92 | 87.2 | 1.05× |
| [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) | 15.0% | $22.14 | 6.3% | 111 | 120.8 | 0.92× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 18.0% | $18.99 | 6.5% | 145 | 144.9 | 1.00× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: operation-bravo-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) [kauamaurey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kauamaurey) $62.82 $864 13.76x 2026-11-03 16:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=229)

[M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $62.82 $104 1.66x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[Nova | Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $62.82 $18.99 0.30x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[Nova | Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $62.82 $18.99 0.30x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $62.82 $25.45 0.41x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $62.82 $25.45 0.41x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $62.82 $22.14 0.35x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[SG 553 | Wave Spray (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-factory-new) [12yo proplayer](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/12yo%20proplayer) $62.82 $22.17 0.35x 2026-11-11 06:35 UTC

[Nova | Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) [Pedro Paz Omito'](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pedro%20Paz%20Omito') $62.82 $18.99 0.30x 2026-11-11 06:35 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) [Mono Romero](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mono%20Romero) $62.82 $129 2.05x 2026-11-11 06:35 UTC

[Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) [12yo proplayer](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/12yo%20proplayer) $62.82 $32.89 0.52x 2026-11-11 06:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $62.82 | 83.32% | 75 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.4% Covert 0.3% Immortal 0.0% knifes 2.4% covert knife 2.5% sunny 0.0% classified 0.5% restricted 14.0% blue 38.0% mil spec 25.0% #4b69ff 10.8% best hit $864 (13.76x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt