---
title: "ESPORTS 2014 SUMMER CASE on DaddySkins: odds & RTP"
description: "ESPORTS 2014 SUMMER CASE ($13.43) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 73 items with odds, observed 82.43% over 1,557 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/230
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [ESPORTS 2014 SUMMER CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/230)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · ESPORTS 2014 SUMMER CASE

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/230?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/230?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/230) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/230?window=all)

Price · $13.43

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $11.19 from 73 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.43% · 1,557 openings, odds method

Variance · 16.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 70.18% ±70.23 128 openings

7 days · 82.38% ±21.44 1,374 openings

30 days · 82.43% ±20.14 1,557 openings

since tracking started · 82.43% ±20.14 1,557 openings

-0.5% 70.3% 141.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/230?window=24h) | 128 | 70.18% ±70.2 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/230?window=7d) | 1,374 | 82.38% ±21.4 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/230) | 1,557 | 82.43% ±20.1 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/230?window=all) | 1,557 | 82.43% ±20.1 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 73 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,561 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,582 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,388 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,312 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,127 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,817 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,771 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,376 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,326 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,255 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,237 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,203 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,169 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,056 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,050 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,049 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,042 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,012 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $945 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $931 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $874 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $864 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $864 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $720 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $694 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $683 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $666 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $624 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $615 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $531 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $500 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $472 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $456 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $446 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $413 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $400 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $392 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $389 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $375 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $369 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $351 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $343 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $341 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $335 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $323 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $314 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $306 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $290 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $261 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $241 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $225 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $214 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $211 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $183 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $179 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $179 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $158 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $137 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $132 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $132 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $129 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $125 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $110 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $84.18 | 1.9% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $53.63 | 2.4% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $39.69 | 3.5% | 11 | 15.6 | 0.70× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $22.54 | 5.0% | 40 | 39.0 | 1.02× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $20.64 | 5.5% | 36 | 46.8 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.43 | 6.0% | 74 | 78.1 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $10.74 | 7.7% | 114 | 124.9 | 0.91× |
| [Negev \| Bratatat (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-factory-new) | 11.5% | $9.16 | 9.4% | 194 | 180.0 | 1.08× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) | 17.0% | $6.00 | 9.1% | 294 | 265.4 | 1.11× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $4.48 | 8.8% | 349 | 343.4 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Red Python (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-python-minimal-wear) | 28.0% | $3.79 | 9.5% | 422 | 437.1 | 0.97× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: esports-2014-summer-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $13.43 $1,237 92.08x 2026-11-09 00:15 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $13.43 $1,049 78.08x 2026-11-06 22:29 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $13.43 $683 50.84x 2026-11-08 20:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=230)

[XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-python-minimal-wear) [menglin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/menglin) $13.43 $3.79 0.28x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) [Miki](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miki) $13.43 $6.00 0.45x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) [pemprayskrim](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pemprayskrim) $13.43 $13.43 1.00x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) [menglin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/menglin) $13.43 $6.00 0.45x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) [Miki](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miki) $13.43 $4.48 0.33x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[Negev | Bratatat (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-factory-new) [pemprayskrim](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pemprayskrim) $13.43 $9.16 0.68x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[Negev | Bratatat (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-factory-new) [menglin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/menglin) $13.43 $9.16 0.68x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) [Miki](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miki) $13.43 $10.74 0.80x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) [pemprayskrim](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pemprayskrim) $13.43 $4.48 0.33x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) [menglin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/menglin) $13.43 $6.00 0.45x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $13.43 | 83.31% | 73 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 11.5% Covert 0.1% covert 0.5% Immortal 0.0% knifes 0.2% covert knife 0.2% sunny 0.0% classified 0.5% restricted 12.0% #4b69ff 0.5% violet 2.5% Rare 5.0% mil spec 67.0% best hit $1,237 (92.08x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt