--- title: "Operation Wildfire Case on DaddySkins: odds & RTP" description: "Operation Wildfire Case ($10.56) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.26% from 28 items with odds, observed 83.20% over 1,847 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/232 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Operation Wildfire Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/232) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Operation Wildfire Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/232?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/232?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/232) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/232?window=all) Price · $10.56 Advertised RTP · 83.26% · EV $8.79 from 28 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.20% · 1,847 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.19% ±38.99 154 openings 7 days · 83.47% ±12.76 1,437 openings 30 days · 83.20% ±11.26 1,847 openings since tracking started · 83.20% ±11.26 1,847 openings 56.5% 96.3% 136.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/232?window=24h) | 154 | 96.19% ±39.0 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/232?window=7d) | 1,437 | 83.47% ±12.8 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/232) | 1,847 | 83.20% ±11.3 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/232?window=all) | 1,847 | 83.20% ±11.3 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,860 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,243 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $927 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $766 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $734 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $616 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $606 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $586 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $391 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $314 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $271 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $253 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $182 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $164 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $157 | 1.8% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $156 | 1.8% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $127 | 2.9% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.61× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $66.18 | 7.5% | 28 | 18.6 | 1.51× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $61.57 | 7.0% | 18 | 18.6 | 0.97× | | [FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $25.95 | 5.9% | 28 | 37.2 | 0.75× | | [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $22.69 | 5.2% | 39 | 37.2 | 1.05× | | [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $16.52 | 7.5% | 72 | 74.4 | 0.97× | | [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.17 | 7.5% | 75 | 93.0 | 0.81× | | [MP7 \| Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.17 | 7.5% | 93 | 93.0 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-factory-new) | 11.4% | $7.29 | 9.5% | 216 | 212.0 | 1.02× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 17.0% | $4.35 | 8.4% | 317 | 316.2 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) | 17.0% | $3.37 | 6.5% | 327 | 316.2 | 1.03× | | [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) | 17.0% | $3.32 | 6.4% | 316 | 316.2 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 17.0% | $2.73 | 5.3% | 316 | 316.2 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: wildfire-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=232) [SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) [Re.Emilia](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Re.Emilia) $10.56 $3.32 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) [Sr\_CleitinhoF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sr_CleitinhoF) $10.56 $2.73 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $10.56 $3.32 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) [pororo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pororo) $10.56 $4.35 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) [Re.Emilia](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Re.Emilia) $10.56 $2.73 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) [Sr\_CleitinhoF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sr_CleitinhoF) $10.56 $4.35 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $10.56 $3.32 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) [pororo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pororo) $10.56 $3.37 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [Tec-9 | Jambiya (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-factory-new) [Re.Emilia](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Re.Emilia) $10.56 $7.29 0.69x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) [Sr\_CleitinhoF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sr_CleitinhoF) $10.56 $2.73 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.56 | 83.26% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% knifes 0.1% classified 1.2% Covert 0.0% #ffd700 0.1% covert knife 0.1% restricted 17.0% mil spec 36.0% Mil Spec Grade 11.4% #4b69ff 34.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.26 on average: an expected loss of $16.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt