--- title: "OPERATION BREAKOUT WEAPON CASE on DaddySkins: odds & RTP" description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/233 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [OPERATION BREAKOUT WEAPON CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/233) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · OPERATION BREAKOUT WEAPON CASE A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/233?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/233?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/233) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/233?window=all) Price · $4.95 Advertised RTP · 83.18% · EV $4.12 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 72.83% · 1,502 openings, odds method Variance · 125.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 286 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 198 openings · below min 7 days · 1,153 openings · below min 30 days · 72.83% ±56.59 1,502 openings since tracking started · 72.83% ±56.59 1,502 openings -0.5% 127.8% 256.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/233?window=24h) | 198 | 99.64% ±155.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/233?window=7d) | 1,153 | 79.71% ±64.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/233) | 1,502 | 72.83% ±56.6 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/233?window=all) | 1,502 | 72.83% ±56.6 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,502 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,938 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,295 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,787 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,714 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,541 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,479 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,138 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,130 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $923 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $871 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $863 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $360 | 4.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $287 | 3.5% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $81.80 | 2.8% | 5 | 2.1 | 2.38× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $47.67 | 2.9% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $30.01 | 5.1% | 16 | 10.5 | 1.52× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $8.48 | 2.5% | 20 | 18.0 | 1.11× | | [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $6.37 | 3.9% | 39 | 37.6 | 1.04× | | [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.48 | 5.4% | 72 | 75.1 | 0.96× | | [P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.23 | 5.1% | 92 | 75.1 | 1.23× | | [Nova \| Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.02 | 4.9% | 68 | 75.1 | 0.91× | | [P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $2.50 | 5.5% | 138 | 135.2 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) | 22.0% | $0.82 | 4.4% | 355 | 330.4 | 1.07× | | [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) | 23.0% | $0.78 | 4.4% | 310 | 345.5 | 0.90× | | [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 26.0% | $0.77 | 4.9% | 381 | 390.5 | 0.98× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: operation-breakout-weapon-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) [buniek](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/buniek) $4.95 $923 186.5x 2026-11-10 07:25 UTC [P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) [Siyei](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Siyei) $4.95 $360 72.63x 2026-11-05 09:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $4.95 $287 57.91x 2026-11-10 19:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) [Palladin04](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Palladin04) $4.95 $287 57.91x 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=233) [PP-Bizon | Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) [Naruto\_LoquillÖ](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Naruto_Loquill%C3%96) $4.95 $4.48 0.91x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) [Re.Emilia](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Re.Emilia) $4.95 $0.77 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) [LoosyGoosy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LoosyGoosy) $4.95 $6.37 1.29x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Nova | Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $4.95 $4.02 0.81x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $4.95 $0.82 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $4.95 $0.77 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $4.95 $0.82 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $4.95 $0.77 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [PP-Bizon | Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) [Senior Vac](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Senior%20Vac) $4.95 $4.48 0.91x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $4.95 $2.50 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.95 | 83.18% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% gold 0.0% knifes 0.0% covert knife 0.0% classified 1.1% restricted 6.2% mil spec 28.5% Mythical 10.0% Rare 32.0% Mil Spec 22.0% best hit $923 (186.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.18 on average: an expected loss of $16.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt