--- title: "Shadow Case Skins case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Shadow Case Skins ($8.62) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.26% from 29 items with odds, observed 92.50% over 2,230 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/235 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Shadow Case Skins](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/235) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Shadow Case Skins A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/235?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/235?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/235) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/235?window=all) Price · $8.62 Advertised RTP · 83.26% · EV $7.18 from 29 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.50% · 2,230 openings, odds method Variance · 18.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 52 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.04% ±51.85 263 openings 7 days · 95.47% ±18.99 1,961 openings 30 days · 92.50% ±17.81 2,230 openings since tracking started · 92.50% ±17.81 2,230 openings 29.5% 82.0% 134.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/235?window=24h) | 263 | 82.04% ±51.8 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/235?window=7d) | 1,961 | 95.47% ±19.0 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/235) | 2,230 | 92.50% ±17.8 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/235?window=all) | 2,230 | 92.50% ±17.8 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,249 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,985 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $607 | 4.2% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.78× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $570 | 7.9% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.33× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $325 | 4.5% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.33× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $314 | 4.4% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $200 | 2.8% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $182 | 2.5% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.33× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $170 | 2.4% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $165 | 2.3% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.78× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $154 | 2.1% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.33× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $153 | 2.1% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.33× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $149 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.44× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $138 | 1.9% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.78× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $136 | 1.9% | 8 | 2.2 | 3.56× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $123 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $122 | 1.7% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.44× | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $65.18 | 1.8% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.33× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $61.91 | 2.2% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $22.45 | 3.4% | 20 | 24.7 | 0.81× | | [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $15.19 | 4.2% | 38 | 45.0 | 0.84× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $13.97 | 3.9% | 39 | 45.0 | 0.87× | | [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $9.84 | 8.2% | 138 | 134.7 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 10.0% | $6.92 | 9.6% | 244 | 224.9 | 1.08× | | [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.71 | 5.2% | 218 | 224.9 | 0.97× | | [XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) | 11.0% | $2.23 | 3.4% | 247 | 247.4 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1.77 | 3.0% | 277 | 269.9 | 1.03× | | [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1.64 | 2.7% | 255 | 269.9 | 0.94× | | [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.14 | 2.4% | 342 | 337.3 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) | 17.0% | $1.06 | 2.5% | 376 | 382.3 | 0.98× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: shadow-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) [HanSF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HanSF) $8.62 $607 70.36x 2026-11-08 23:25 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $8.62 $607 70.36x 2026-11-08 20:20 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $8.62 $570 66.09x 2026-11-09 21:15 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $8.62 $570 66.09x 2026-11-08 20:01 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) [vicious](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/vicious) $8.62 $570 66.09x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=235) [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) [Kapitan Gówienow](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kapitan%20G%C3%B3wienow) $8.62 $1.64 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) [✪TRIF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AATRIF) $8.62 $1.06 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) [Can I get an OhHH YeeEEaaaHH?](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Can%20I%20get%20an%20OhHH%20YeeEEaaaHH%3F) $8.62 $1.14 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) [Miguel](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miguel) $8.62 $1.64 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) [Pucho](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pucho) $8.62 $1.06 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) [Mayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mayers) $8.62 $1.64 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) [Negritow 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Negritow%202) $8.62 $1.06 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [XM1014 | Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) [DHame](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/DHame) $8.62 $2.23 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [XM1014 | Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) [\`bizzkit](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%60bizzkit) $8.62 $2.23 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) [Re.Emilia](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Re.Emilia) $8.62 $3.71 0.43x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.62 | 83.26% | 29 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% classified 0.5% rare 0.2% covert knife 0.2% restricted 3.1% violet 2.0% Mythical 6.0% blue 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% Rare 23.0% mil spec 44.0% best hit $607 (70.36x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.26 on average: an expected loss of $16.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt