---
title: "CHROMA 3 CASE case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CHROMA 3 CASE ($3.97) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.20% from 47 items with odds, observed 100.71% over 3,747 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/236
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CHROMA 3 CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/236)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CHROMA 3 CASE

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/236?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/236?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/236) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/236?window=all)

Price · $3.97

Advertised RTP · 83.20% · EV $3.30 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.71% · 3,747 openings, odds method

Variance · 36.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 61 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.26% ±56.98 427 openings

7 days · 103.73% ±21.31 3,053 openings

30 days · 100.71% ±19.24 3,747 openings

since tracking started · 100.71% ±19.24 3,747 openings

19.5% 77.3% 135.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/236?window=24h) | 427 | 77.26% ±57.0 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/236?window=7d) | 3,053 | 103.73% ±21.3 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/236) | 3,747 | 100.71% ±19.2 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/236?window=all) | 3,747 | 100.71% ±19.2 | +1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,757 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,325 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,919 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,763 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,749 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,243 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,057 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $946 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $900 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $841 | 1.3% | 3 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $791 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $724 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $646 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $613 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $587 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $571 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $547 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $437 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $426 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $346 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $287 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $247 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $224 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $222 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $219 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $188 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $175 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $172 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $158 | 2.4% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $154 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $150 | 2.3% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $112 | 3.4% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.33× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $69.92 | 4.2% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $66.29 | 4.0% | 14 | 7.5 | 1.86× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $51.93 | 4.7% | 16 | 11.3 | 1.42× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $36.90 | 5.6% | 25 | 18.8 | 1.33× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $22.79 | 5.2% | 40 | 28.2 | 1.42× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $14.65 | 4.4% | 39 | 37.6 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $7.36 | 4.5% | 72 | 75.1 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.48 | 6.6% | 147 | 150.3 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.01 | 6.1% | 148 | 150.3 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Atlas (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.14 | 3.1% | 359 | 338.1 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.08 | 2.9% | 305 | 338.1 | 0.90× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.04 | 2.8% | 344 | 338.1 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.80 | 2.9% | 448 | 450.8 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.78 | 2.8% | 435 | 450.8 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-factory-new) | 15.6% | $0.72 | 3.4% | 590 | 586.8 | 1.01× |
| [M249 \| Spectre (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.71 | 4.3% | 748 | 751.4 | 1.00× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: chroma-3-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [YannikPlaysHD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/YannikPlaysHD) $3.97 $841 211.7x 2026-11-09 02:05 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Alex](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Alex) $3.97 $841 211.7x 2026-11-04 23:17 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [John Rambo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/John%20Rambo) $3.97 $841 211.7x 2026-11-04 13:35 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) [Сосиска](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%D0%A1%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0) $3.97 $437 110.1x 2026-11-05 06:21 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $3.97 $287 72.22x 2026-11-08 09:35 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) [MaN-](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MaN-) $3.97 $224 56.30x 2026-11-04 18:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=236)

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) [Bugghappen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Bugghappen) $3.97 $0.80 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[SG 553 | Atlas (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-factory-new) [Miguel](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miguel) $3.97 $1.14 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) [Tamerunal98](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Tamerunal98) $3.97 $1.04 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[M249 | Spectre (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-factory-new) [Samy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Samy) $3.97 $0.71 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) [✪TRIF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AATRIF) $3.97 $0.80 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Ventilators (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-factory-new) [simba](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/simba) $3.97 $0.72 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) [Pucho](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pucho) $3.97 $0.80 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) [少女情怀总是诗๑](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B0%91%E5%A5%B3%E6%83%85%E6%80%80%E6%80%BB%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%97%E0%B9%91) $3.97 $0.80 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) [gratarolli](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/gratarolli) $3.97 $0.80 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $3.97 $0.80 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.97 | 83.20% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% covert 0.3% covert knife 0.1% #ffd700 0.0% gold 0.2% classified 1.0% restricted 11.8% milspec 9.0% mil spec 36.6% Rare 29.0% #4b69ff 12.0% best hit $841 (211.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.20 on average: an expected loss of $16.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt