---
title: "CHROMA CASE case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CHROMA CASE ($4.60) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 44 items with odds, observed 82.93% over 2,517 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/237
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CHROMA CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/237)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CHROMA CASE

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/237?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/237?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/237) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/237?window=all)

Price · $4.60

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $3.83 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.93% · 2,517 openings, odds method

Variance · 18.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.68% ±41.86 414 openings

7 days · 85.53% ±18.65 2,086 openings

30 days · 82.93% ±16.98 2,517 openings

since tracking started · 82.93% ±16.98 2,517 openings

38.0% 80.5% 123.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/237?window=24h) | 414 | 80.68% ±41.9 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/237?window=7d) | 2,086 | 85.53% ±18.6 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/237) | 2,517 | 82.93% ±17.0 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/237?window=all) | 2,517 | 82.93% ±17.0 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,522 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,325 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,919 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,763 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,749 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,243 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,057 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $946 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $900 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $841 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $791 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $724 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $613 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $587 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $571 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $547 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $437 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $426 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $346 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $287 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $247 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $224 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $222 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $219 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $188 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $172 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $166 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $158 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $157 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $154 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $150 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $136 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $130 | 1.7% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.38× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $112 | 2.9% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.19× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $69.92 | 3.6% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.79× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $39.22 | 5.1% | 19 | 12.6 | 1.51× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $33.58 | 6.1% | 18 | 17.7 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $12.39 | 6.5% | 58 | 50.4 | 1.15× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $9.23 | 6.0% | 54 | 63.1 | 0.86× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $8.83 | 6.9% | 65 | 75.7 | 0.86× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $7.38 | 7.7% | 114 | 100.9 | 1.13× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 11.7% | $3.45 | 10.5% | 279 | 295.3 | 0.94× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.63 | 10.6% | 630 | 630.5 | 1.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.28 | 8.4% | 655 | 630.5 | 1.04× |
| [XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.13 | 7.4% | 616 | 630.5 | 0.98× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: chroma-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) [ecks dee](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/ecks%20dee) $4.60 $571 124.0x 2026-11-07 04:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=237)

[SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) [红伞伞白杆杆](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%BA%A2%E4%BC%9E%E4%BC%9E%E7%99%BD%E6%9D%86%E6%9D%86) $4.60 $1.28 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-factory-new) [ВЫЛЫСЫПЫДЫСТ](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%D0%92%D0%AB%D0%9B%D0%AB%D0%A1%D0%AB%D0%9F%D0%AB%D0%94%D0%AB%D0%A1%D0%A2) $4.60 $1.13 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) [Armani](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Armani) $4.60 $1.28 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) [D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/D.) $4.60 $1.63 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) [RACCOON](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RACCOON) $4.60 $1.28 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) [STRYCK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/STRYCK) $4.60 $1.63 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) [请加新号：U2YO\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E8%AF%B7%E5%8A%A0%E6%96%B0%E5%8F%B7%EF%BC%9AU2YO*-1631720) $4.60 $1.63 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) [D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/D.) $4.60 $3.45 0.75x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC

[XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-factory-new) [RACCOON](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RACCOON) $4.60 $1.13 0.25x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC

[XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-factory-new) [STRYCK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/STRYCK) $4.60 $1.13 0.25x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.60 | 83.31% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% covert 0.2% covert knife 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% classified 0.8% gold 0.2% restricted 8.0% mil spec 54.0% Mil Spec 11.7% Rare 25.0% best hit $571 (124.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt