---
title: "CHROMA 2 CASE case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CHROMA 2 CASE ($4.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 45 items with odds, observed 93.24% over 2,933 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/238
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CHROMA 2 CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/238)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CHROMA 2 CASE

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/238?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/238?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/238) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/238?window=all)

Price · $4.00

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $3.33 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.24% · 2,933 openings, odds method

Variance · 24.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.99% ±52.14 348 openings

7 days · 90.45% ±19.47 2,496 openings

30 days · 93.24% ±17.96 2,933 openings

since tracking started · 93.24% ±17.96 2,933 openings

42.0% 95.0% 148.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/238?window=24h) | 348 | 94.99% ±52.1 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/238?window=7d) | 2,496 | 90.45% ±19.5 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/238) | 2,933 | 93.24% ±18.0 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/238?window=all) | 2,933 | 93.24% ±18.0 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,947 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,325 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,919 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,763 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,749 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,243 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,057 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $946 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $900 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $891 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $841 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $791 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $724 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $613 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $587 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $571 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $547 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $437 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $426 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $346 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $287 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $247 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $224 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $222 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $219 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $188 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $173 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $172 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $158 | 2.4% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.39× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $154 | 2.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.36× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $150 | 2.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $141 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $112 | 3.4% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $69.92 | 4.2% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.70× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $62.80 | 4.7% | 7 | 7.4 | 0.95× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $61.84 | 5.6% | 13 | 8.8 | 1.47× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $23.36 | 7.0% | 31 | 29.5 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $13.91 | 8.3% | 64 | 58.9 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $6.72 | 9.0% | 140 | 131.1 | 1.07× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $6.27 | 8.4% | 142 | 131.1 | 1.08× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 13.0% | $1.90 | 7.4% | 358 | 383.1 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 13.0% | $1.79 | 7.0% | 373 | 383.1 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 14.9% | $1.00 | 4.5% | 435 | 439.7 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.75 | 3.4% | 422 | 442.1 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Armor Core (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.73 | 3.3% | 463 | 442.1 | 1.05× |
| [Negev \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $0.38 | 1.8% | 471 | 471.5 | 1.00× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: chroma-2-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) [drakar101](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/drakar101) $4.00 $224 55.88x 2026-11-05 05:26 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [9erjiuzhi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/9erjiuzhi) $4.00 $222 55.59x 2026-11-11 04:06 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [Mr.J](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mr.J) $4.00 $222 55.59x 2026-11-04 13:42 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=238)

[MP7 | Armor Core (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-factory-new) [1124827605](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1124827605) $4.00 $0.73 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) [RetroGod](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RetroGod) $4.00 $0.75 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[MP7 | Armor Core (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-factory-new) [19](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/19) $4.00 $0.73 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) [Pucho](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pucho) $4.00 $0.38 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) [白色领带Oba](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%99%BD%E8%89%B2%E9%A2%86%E5%B8%A6Oba) $4.00 $0.75 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) [Pucho](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pucho) $4.00 $1.00 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) [少女情怀总是诗๑](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B0%91%E5%A5%B3%E6%83%85%E6%80%80%E6%80%BB%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%97%E0%B9%91) $4.00 $0.38 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) [LoosyGoosy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LoosyGoosy) $4.00 $1.90 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) [少女情怀总是诗๑](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B0%91%E5%A5%B3%E6%83%85%E6%80%80%E6%80%BB%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%97%E0%B9%91) $4.00 $0.75 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) [LoosyGoosy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LoosyGoosy) $4.00 $1.79 0.45x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.00 | 83.31% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% covert 0.3% covert knife 0.1% #ffd700 0.0% classified 0.6% gold 0.2% Mythical 1.0% mil spec 31.9% restricted 4.5% #8847ff 4.5% milspec 13.0% violet 13.0% #4b69ff 31.0% best hit $224 (55.88x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt