--- title: "Luxury v3 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Luxury v3 ($236.20) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 80.86% from 15 items with odds, observed 83.03% over 414 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/239 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Luxury v3](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/239) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Luxury v3 A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/239?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/239?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/239) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/239?window=all) Price · $236.20 Advertised RTP · 80.86% · EV $191.00 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.03% · 414 openings, odds method Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 73.31% ±20.69 176 openings 30 days · 83.03% ±13.49 414 openings since tracking started · 83.03% ±13.49 414 openings 16.0% 81.3% 146.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/239?window=24h) | 18 | 81.30% ±64.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/239?window=7d) | 176 | 73.31% ±20.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/239) | 414 | 83.03% ±13.5 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/239?window=all) | 414 | 83.03% ±13.5 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 414 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,320 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $3,060 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $2,479 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,768 | 4.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,436 | 3.8% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $1,371 | 5.4% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.61× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,112 | 5.8% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.69× | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,062 | 5.6% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,006 | 5.3% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.45× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $451 | 7.1% | 17 | 12.4 | 1.37× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $367 | 9.6% | 21 | 20.7 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $231 | 12.1% | 51 | 41.4 | 1.23× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 20.0% | $176 | 18.4% | 74 | 82.8 | 0.89× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 21.8% | $109 | 12.4% | 75 | 90.3 | 0.83× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 35.0% | $14.56 | 2.7% | 152 | 144.9 | 1.05× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: luxury)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $236 $2,479 10.50x 2026-11-04 11:04 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $236 $1,768 7.49x 2026-11-08 20:29 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $236 $1,768 7.49x 2026-11-04 08:51 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $236 $1,436 6.08x 2026-11-06 21:43 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $236 $1,436 6.08x 2026-11-04 09:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $236 $1,371 5.80x 2026-11-06 21:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $236 $1,371 5.80x 2026-11-04 10:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [L'Italiano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/L'Italiano) $236 $1,371 5.80x 2026-11-04 10:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $236 $1,371 5.80x 2026-11-04 10:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $236 $1,371 5.80x 2026-11-04 02:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=239) [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $236 $176 0.75x 2026-11-11 03:07 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $236 $14.56 0.06x 2026-11-11 03:07 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $236 $14.56 0.06x 2026-11-11 03:07 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $236 $14.56 0.06x 2026-11-11 03:07 UTC [AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $236 $367 1.56x 2026-11-11 03:07 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [万能の阿巴](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%B8%87%E8%83%BD%E3%81%AE%E9%98%BF%E5%B7%B4) $236 $176 0.75x 2026-11-11 03:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $236 $109 0.46x 2026-11-10 20:34 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $236 $109 0.46x 2026-11-10 20:34 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $236 $14.56 0.06x 2026-11-10 20:34 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $236 $176 0.75x 2026-11-10 20:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $236 | 80.86% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 21.9% covert 36.4% epic 0.8% rare 1.0% pink 5.0% restricted 35.0% best hit $2,479 (10.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $80.86 on average: an expected loss of $19.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt