---
title: "Treasure case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Treasure ($20.58) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.30% from 153 items with odds, observed 82.90% over 1,646 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/240
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Treasure](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/240)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Treasure

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/240?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/240?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/240) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/240?window=all)

Price · $20.58

Advertised RTP · 83.30% · EV $17.14 from 153 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.90% · 1,646 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.24% ±19.63 351 openings

7 days · 80.40% ±10.04 1,343 openings

30 days · 82.90% ±9.07 1,646 openings

since tracking started · 82.90% ±9.07 1,646 openings

60.0% 80.3% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/240?window=24h) | 351 | 80.24% ±19.6 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/240?window=7d) | 1,343 | 80.40% ±10.0 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/240) | 1,646 | 82.90% ±9.07 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/240?window=all) | 1,646 | 82.90% ±9.07 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 153 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,646 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $3,508 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,325 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,782 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,734 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,494 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,476 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,393 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,133 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,116 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,070 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,069 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $940 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $927 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $894 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $891 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $813 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $778 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $766 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $708 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $617 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $614 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $607 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $572 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $570 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $554 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $553 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $500 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $479 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $476 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $464 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 25,000 | $462 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 25,000 | $457 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $440 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $360 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $355 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $353 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $340 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $315 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $314 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $301 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $292 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $288 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $276 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $273 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $265 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 25,000 | $256 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $252 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $246 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $245 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $240 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $238 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $234 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $232 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $232 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $212 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $211 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $209 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $207 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $197 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $196 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $193 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $189 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $188 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $180 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $177 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $176 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $174 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $172 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $170 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $167 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $166 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $164 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $158 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $158 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $158 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $153 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $152 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $152 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $150 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $142 | 0.4% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $141 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $139 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $138 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $137 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $137 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $136 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $129 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $118 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $117 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $116 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $112 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $112 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $112 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $111 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $111 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $111 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $105 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $104 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $103 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $102 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $101 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $100 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $100 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $99.53 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.82× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $97.51 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $97.16 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $96.26 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $94.92 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $93.32 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $90.88 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $90.78 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.82× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $90.48 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $90.41 | 0.5% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.43× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $89.73 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.82× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $89.10 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.82× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $88.67 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $87.10 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $82.23 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $80.53 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $77.84 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $77.44 | 0.9% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $75.80 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $73.93 | 0.9% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $71.35 | 0.8% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $69.92 | 0.8% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $69.89 | 0.8% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.52× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $66.76 | 0.8% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $65.95 | 0.8% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.82× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $65.70 | 0.8% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $65.46 | 0.8% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $64.70 | 0.8% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.82× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $63.56 | 0.7% | 7 | 3.3 | 2.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $54.56 | 0.6% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $54.16 | 0.6% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $54.12 | 0.6% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $48.62 | 0.6% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $45.46 | 0.5% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $38.82 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $36.09 | 1.1% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $35.06 | 1.0% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $27.84 | 0.8% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $24.72 | 0.7% | 13 | 8.2 | 1.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $22.81 | 0.7% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $22.26 | 0.6% | 11 | 8.2 | 1.34× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 10.0% | $20.35 | 11.9% | 170 | 164.6 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 10.0% | $18.80 | 11.0% | 153 | 164.6 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 10.0% | $18.61 | 10.9% | 189 | 164.6 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 10.0% | $14.30 | 8.3% | 160 | 164.6 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 10.0% | $10.57 | 6.2% | 164 | 164.6 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 10.0% | $7.06 | 4.1% | 166 | 164.6 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 10.0% | $3.22 | 1.9% | 171 | 164.6 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.63 | 1.0% | 147 | 164.6 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.73 | 0.4% | 153 | 164.6 | 0.93× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: treasure)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=240)

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $20.58 $90.41 4.39x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $20.58 $18.61 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $20.58 $7.06 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $20.58 $18.80 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $20.58 $18.80 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) [smirker18](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/smirker18) $20.58 $0.73 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) [BOT Mattias](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BOT%20Mattias) $20.58 $18.61 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) [陈大佬](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%99%88%E5%A4%A7%E4%BD%AC) $20.58 $10.57 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [EVI7QUEEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/EVI7QUEEN) $20.58 $7.06 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [DeadSociety](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/DeadSociety) $20.58 $20.35 0.99x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.58 | 83.30% | 153 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.1% Covert 0.0% classified 44.0% gold 0.6% knifes 0.0% covert knife 0.8% sunny 0.0% rare 0.0% #ffd700 0.1% Immortal 0.2% Legendary 0.2% pink 10.0% restricted 20.0% #8847ff 10.0% violet 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.30 on average: an expected loss of $16.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt