---
title: "Friday Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Friday Case ($4.59) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.17% from 57 items with odds, observed 79.31% over 3,070 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/242
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Friday Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/242)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Friday Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/242?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/242?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/242) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/242?window=all)

Price · $4.59

Advertised RTP · 83.17% · EV $3.82 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.31% · 3,070 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75.80% ±17.20 277 openings

7 days · 79.32% ±6.29 2,069 openings

30 days · 79.31% ±5.17 3,070 openings

since tracking started · 79.31% ±5.17 3,070 openings

58.0% 75.8% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/242?window=24h) | 277 | 75.80% ±17.2 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/242?window=7d) | 2,069 | 79.32% ±6.29 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/242) | 3,070 | 79.31% ±5.17 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/242?window=all) | 3,070 | 79.31% ±5.17 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,070 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $462 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $368 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $287 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $234 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $220 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $220 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $168 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $146 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $141 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $136 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $125 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $123 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $109 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $94.49 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $89.28 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $80.55 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $61.64 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.95× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $50.82 | 1.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $48.43 | 1.3% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.63× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $47.15 | 1.2% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $46.21 | 1.2% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $36.09 | 0.9% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $32.49 | 1.1% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $30.90 | 1.1% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 769 | $29.30 | 1.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $24.72 | 1.3% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.30× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $23.45 | 1.2% | 6 | 6.1 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $22.73 | 1.2% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $22.26 | 1.2% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $19.93 | 1.3% | 13 | 7.7 | 1.69× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $19.78 | 1.3% | 14 | 7.7 | 1.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $19.47 | 1.3% | 5 | 7.7 | 0.65× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $18.80 | 1.2% | 3 | 7.7 | 0.39× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $18.61 | 1.2% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $17.88 | 1.2% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $17.85 | 1.2% | 3 | 7.7 | 0.39× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $17.70 | 1.2% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $16.47 | 1.1% | 12 | 7.7 | 1.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $14.19 | 0.9% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $12.38 | 1.0% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $12.21 | 1.0% | 6 | 9.2 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $11.63 | 0.9% | 10 | 9.2 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $9.59 | 1.3% | 26 | 15.3 | 1.69× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $9.08 | 1.2% | 18 | 15.3 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $8.55 | 1.1% | 7 | 15.3 | 0.46× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $7.97 | 1.0% | 15 | 15.3 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $6.71 | 1.8% | 34 | 30.7 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $6.28 | 2.0% | 28 | 36.8 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $5.86 | 6.8% | 147 | 135.1 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $5.50 | 6.3% | 137 | 135.1 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Well-Worn) weapon · 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $5.15 | 6.7% | 147 | 153.5 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.84 | 6.3% | 133 | 153.5 | 0.87× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.55 | 6.0% | 162 | 153.5 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $3.26 | 6.0% | 207 | 214.9 | 0.96× |
| [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 10.0% | $2.43 | 6.4% | 300 | 307.0 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.46 | 7.6% | 591 | 614.0 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) | 29.7% | $0.84 | 6.5% | 969 | 913.2 | 1.06× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: friday-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=242)

[MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $4.59 $0.84 0.18x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $4.59 $0.84 0.18x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $4.59 $4.55 0.99x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-factory-new) [Joseph Joestar skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Joseph%20Joestar%20skins.army) $4.59 $3.26 0.71x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $4.59 $0.84 0.18x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $4.59 $0.84 0.18x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC

[Charm | That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $4.59 $2.43 0.53x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $4.59 $1.46 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $4.59 $1.46 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[Charm | That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $4.59 $2.43 0.53x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.59 | 83.17% | 57 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 4 5.0% classified 9.2% Covert 0.0% covert 0.0% covert knife 0.0% pink 2.9% #d32ee6 0.7% Legendary 5.4% restricted 30.0% Rare 7.0% uncommon 10.0% Mythical 29.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.17 on average: an expected loss of $16.83 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt