--- title: "70% knife case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "70% knife ($87.26) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 13 items with odds, observed 84.52% over 307 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/260 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [70% knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/260) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · 70% knife A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/260?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/260?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/260) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/260?window=all) Price · $87.26 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $72.72 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.52% · 307 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 73.23% ±21.25 237 openings 30 days · 84.52% ±18.67 307 openings since tracking started · 84.52% ±18.67 307 openings 51.5% 116.0% 180.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/260?window=24h) | 30 | 120.36% ±59.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/260?window=7d) | 237 | 73.23% ±21.3 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/260) | 307 | 84.52% ±18.7 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/260?window=all) | 307 | 84.52% ±18.7 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 307 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,090 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,521 | 4.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $1,033 | 5.0% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.79× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $544 | 8.4% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $216 | 6.7% | 3 | 6.9 | 0.43× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $106 | 8.0% | 15 | 16.9 | 0.89× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $104 | 8.6% | 14 | 18.4 | 0.76× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $87.01 | 8.9% | 29 | 22.9 | 1.26× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $84.10 | 9.3% | 25 | 24.6 | 1.02× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $80.55 | 10.0% | 24 | 27.6 | 0.87× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $65.45 | 13.5% | 43 | 46.0 | 0.93× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 15.0% | $62.60 | 12.9% | 52 | 46.0 | 1.13× | | [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $0.80 | 0.3% | 95 | 92.1 | 1.03× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: 70-knife)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [3al00p](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/3al00p) $87.26 $1,521 17.44x 2026-11-03 06:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $87.26 $1,033 11.83x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Boyka](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Boyka) $87.26 $1,033 11.83x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $87.26 $1,033 11.83x 2026-11-03 16:03 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $87.26 $544 6.23x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $87.26 $544 6.23x 2026-11-04 04:52 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [4mo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/4mo) $87.26 $544 6.23x 2026-11-03 13:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=260) [★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $87.26 $87.01 1.00x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $87.26 $0.80 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $87.26 $106 1.21x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $87.26 $62.60 0.72x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $87.26 $62.60 0.72x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [LamaKicker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LamaKicker) $87.26 $65.45 0.75x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $87.26 $0.80 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $87.26 $65.45 0.75x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $87.26 $62.60 0.72x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $87.26 $0.80 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $87.26 | 83.33% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 31.6% gold 0.3% #ffd700 6.0% covert knife 32.0% mil spec 30.0% best hit $1,521 (17.44x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt