--- title: "Luck 50% case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Luck 50% ($1.74) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 82.93% from 9 items with odds, observed 82.19% over 7,135 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/263 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Luck 50%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/263) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Luck 50% A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/263?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/263?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/263) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/263?window=all) Price · $1.74 Advertised RTP · 82.93% · EV $1.44 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.19% · 7,135 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 50.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.63% ±9.50 715 openings 7 days · 82.75% ±3.30 5,919 openings 30 days · 82.19% ±3.01 7,135 openings since tracking started · 82.19% ±3.01 7,135 openings 75.5% 85.8% 96.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/263?window=24h) | 715 | 85.63% ±9.50 | +0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/263?window=7d) | 5,919 | 82.75% ±3.30 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/263) | 7,135 | 82.19% ±3.01 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/263?window=all) | 7,135 | 82.19% ±3.01 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,153 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $141 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 917 | $23.80 | 1.8% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $9.78 | 3.4% | 38 | 35.8 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $9.38 | 6.5% | 74 | 71.5 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $8.92 | 11.1% | 143 | 128.8 | 1.11× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $3.45 | 4.8% | 121 | 143.1 | 0.85× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.82 | 7.4% | 425 | 422.0 | 1.01× | | [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 38.7% | $1.53 | 41.0% | 2,742 | 2766.8 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) | 50.0% | $0.66 | 22.9% | 3,605 | 3576.5 | 1.01× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: luck-50)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=263) [P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) [Mayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mayers) $1.74 $0.66 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) [Samy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Samy) $1.74 $0.66 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) [Bugghappen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Bugghappen) $1.74 $0.66 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) [白色领带Oba](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%99%BD%E8%89%B2%E9%A2%86%E5%B8%A6Oba) $1.74 $1.53 0.88x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [WHITEBEARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/WHITEBEARD) $1.74 $1.82 1.05x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) [Mayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mayers) $1.74 $0.66 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) [Giorno Giovanna](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Giorno%20Giovanna) $1.74 $1.53 0.88x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) [GustaGOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/GustaGOD) $1.74 $1.53 0.88x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [少女情怀总是诗๑](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B0%91%E5%A5%B3%E6%83%85%E6%80%80%E6%80%BB%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%97%E0%B9%91) $1.74 $1.82 1.05x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [GustaGOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/GustaGOD) $1.74 $1.82 1.05x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.74 | 82.93% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% #8847ff 2.1% Legendary 0.5% pink 1.0% classified 1.8% Mythical 5.9% blue 38.7% violet 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.93 on average: an expected loss of $17.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt